Republicans test drive abortion counterpunch in Virginia elections

The elections in Virginia on Tuesday will put Republicans’ post-Roe push for limits on abortion to the test.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin and his Republicans running for seats in the state’s newly drawn legislative districts have rallied around a 15-week abortion ban to challenge Democrats’ charge that the GOP wants to outlaw the procedure altogether.

“This year’s elections in Virginia are particularly important because it is the first opportunity to see whether Republicans have an effective message with the 15-week abortion ban proposal,” said Stephen Farnsworth, director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington. “Republicans have been suffering politically ever since the Supreme Court revised Roe v Wade and Republicans in Virginia have largely campaigned on the 15-week ban as an alternative to being fully pro-life.

“Will that work? We will know after Tuesday,” he said. “If it does work, expect Republicans across the country next year to sound like Virginia politicians this year.”

Democrats are working overtime to make sure the GOP’s latest counterpunch is another miss on abortion.

Heather Williams, interim president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, framed the stakes of the election in stark terms.

“Virginians will go to the ballot box on Tuesday and wake up Wednesday, knowing whether or not their right to an abortion is protected,” Ms. Williams told The Washington Times. “It’s pretty simple.”

Mr. Youngkin, who is not up for reelection but has taken a hands-on approach in helping Republicans win control of the General Assembly, says that Democrats are lying about the GOP’s stance on abortion. He says it is Democrats who are embracing “extreme abortion policies” that are out of step with most Virginians.

Mr. Youngkin has championed a 15-week abortion ban that includes exceptions for cases of rape and incest and protects the life of the mother.

GOP candidates in competitive races have followed his lead.

“I believe this is going to be a decision between no limits and reasonable limits, and it is one I think we will win,” Mr. Youngkin said during a recent appearance on Fox News’s “The Ingraham Angle.”

The Democrat’s post-Roe electoral messaging has paid off in spades in elections across the nation, and on Tuesday they hope it will help them defend their slim Senate majority and flip the GOP-led House of Delegates.

The abortion message is at the center of a broader warning that if Republicans capture total control of Richmond, they will target “fundamental rights” and seek to restrict access to voting, ban books, prevent “common-sense” gun laws and stop people from marrying the person they love.

“Does Virginia become the next Florida and Republicans have a trifecta or do we come into a place where Virginia has a stopgap to these really horrific Republican policies,” Ms. Williams said.

Republicans also are focusing on the economy, jobs, schools and empowering parents.

“We have demonstrated you can reduce taxes, you can back the blue, you can support parents and put them at the head of the table, you can raise expectations in schools, and we have created 230,000 jobs in 22 months that puts us near the top of the nation, and that is what is on the ballot,” Mr. Youngkin said. “The other side, all they have to sell is fear, and we are talking about hope for the future, and hope beats fear every day of the week.” 

Mr. Farnsworth said the Virginia elections tend to have an outsized influence on the national political conversation because off-year elections are unusual. Also, of the states holding elections Tuesday, Virginia is the closest to a purple state.

“Both parties want the bragging rights of securing wins in Virginia as a leading political indicator going into ‘24,” he said. “That is why so much money is being spent in Virginia. Neither party wants to leave anything on the table.”

The election also is being billed as a referendum on Mr. Youngkin’s first two years in office and a chance for him to elevate his national profile for a possible White House run. 

Mr. Younkin, who is the former head of a private equity firm, got credit for helping Republicans flip control of the House of Delegates during his rise in the 2021 election. He wants to build on that success by capturing control of the Democrat-led Senate that thwarted parts of his legislative agenda.

Mr. Youngkin has welcomed the chance to step into the spotlight. He has put a major emphasis on early voting.

“These races are incredibly tight and we need to get everybody out to vote,” he said. “We need to make sure Republicans get off the sidelines.”

Republicans’ most likely path to flipping control of the state Senate hinges on winning the race between Russet Perry, a Democrat, and Juan Pablo Segura, a Republican, in the 31st Legislative District, which includes parts of Loudoun and Fauquier counties.

Money has flooded into the race.

Ms. Russet, a former CIA agent, has raised over $6 million, and Mr. Segura, the founder of a health-care company and donut business, has pulled in $5 million, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, a nonpartisan group that tracks spending.

Republicans are also looking for a win in the newly drawn Senate District 16 in the Richmond suburbs where Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, a doctor, is running against state Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg, a teacher.

“Barring some big upset elsewhere, Republicans need to win at least one of these races to win what would amount to a 20-20 Senate edge,” said J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “Democrats, meanwhile, have some other targets beyond these seats, but winning both would likely be sufficient for them to get to a 21-19 Senate majority even if they lose some other closely-contested races elsewhere.”

They said the fate of the House would be decided in a series of races in the outer suburbs of Northern Virginia, the Richmond area and Virginia Beach.