The bloody campaign to crush Hamas is perhaps the most ambitious undertaking of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s decades-long rule.
There is growing evidence that it may also be his political swan song.
Even as the nation rallies together after Hamas‘ horrific Oct. 7 terrorist assault and a shaky cease-fire and prisoner exchange plays out, one recent survey showed Mr. Netanyahu‘s approval rating among the Israeli public at a dismal 22%, with even fewer Israelis supporting the prime minister’s coalition government in the aftermath of the attacks.
Other polls show Mr. Netanyahu getting trounced by center-left political rival-turned-war cabinet colleague Benny Gantz when Israelis were asked who is better suited to be prime minister right now.
And even during a major war in the Gaza Strip and with thousands of troops in the field and hundreds of Israelis still held captive by Hamas, some of Mr. Netanyahu‘s critics are publicly calling for the seemingly bulletproof Israeli prime minister to step aside and let a new government lead the push to eradicate Hamas.
Specialists say that while the Oct. 7 attack is rightly viewed as Israel‘s 9/11, the aftermath in Israel has been far different than it was in the U.S. 22 years ago, when then-President George W. Bush and New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani soared in popularity and helped channel the nation’s grief and anger.
Me. Netanyahu was a polarizing figure domestically long before the murderous Hamas attack, and his divisive image in Washington and much of the developing world has left Israel scrambling to find friends and supporters abroad.
“I’m not sure he is the figure that has brought the country together,” Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said of Mr. Netanyahu. “I think the sorrow over the slaughter of over 1,200 Israelis has brought the country together. I don’t think there has been a galvanizing political figure yet to emerge from this.”
In fact, Mr. Schanzer said there are mounting questions about whether Mr. Netanyahu‘s own policies — particularly his wildly controversial judicial reform push that sparked protests across Israel earlier this year — may have sent a signal of vulnerability to Hamas.
“Did the perception of Israeli weakness contribute to the Hamas decision to launch the 10/7 assault? That has not yet been revealed,” Mr. Schanzer said. “We had 10 months of massive protests on the streets of Israel, where the country really looked like it was pulling apart at the seams. … One got the distinct sense the country was on the verge of some kind of civil conflict.”
“It certainly contributed to a sense that Israel was weaker, perhaps less prepared for battle,” Mr. Schanzer said.
So far, Mr. Netanyahu has avoided taking direct responsibility for the apparent Israeli intelligence and security failures leading up to Oct. 7, even as some of his top lieutenants have acknowledged the government’s failings. He insists that he and all other prominent Israeli leaders will be forced to account for what happened at some undetermined point in the future.
“This whole question will be addressed after the war,” Mr. Netanyahu told CNN earlier this month. “Did people ask Franklin Roosevelt after Pearl Harbor that question? Did people ask George Bush after the surprise attack of September 11? It’s a question that needs to be asked.”
“We’re going to answer all these questions, including me, I’m going to be asked tough questions,” he said. “Right now I think what we have to do is unite the country for one purpose, one purpose alone, to achieve victory.”
Courting controversy
But even the Israeli Defense Forces themselves have found themselves pulled into the web of political controversy.
Just five months ago, hundreds of IDF reservists were marching in the streets of Tel Aviv and threatening to refuse to report for duty if Mr. Netanyahu’s government pressed ahead with its judicial reform plan, which critics claim would remove a critical check on Mr. Netanyahu‘s nationalist, ultra-religious coalition government.
Such unprecedented scenes suggested that the hawkish, tough-talking Mr. Netanyahu may have finally gone too far, and that his decades-long political career in Israel may have been nearing its end.
While Mr. Netanyahu‘s political obituary has been prematurely written many times before, the judicial reform plan seemed to spark unprecedented resentment from within Israeli society. Among other things, the plan would give the nation’s governing coalition power over judicial appointments. Separately, Mr. Netanyahu’s government also wants to pass laws that would give the Knesset power to overrule Israeli Supreme Court decisions that invalidate Knesset-approved measures and put new limits on judicial reviews of some laws.
Some of Mr. Netanyahu‘s critics said the plan was a direct response to criminal corruption charges facing the prime minister.
“He wants to get out of this trial,” former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak said in an interview earlier this year with Foreign Policy magazine. “Bibi decided to attack the judicial system, to threaten its independence, to destroy it” for his own benefit.
In March, Mr. Netanyahu even fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant after Mr. Gallant publicly questioned the pace of the reform push. But Mr. Netanyahu reversed that decision just weeks later. Mr. Gallant is now a key member of the prime minister’s war cabinet, which also includes Mr. Gantz, a longtime political rival, with the three men projecting a unified front of wartime decision-making.
And Israel‘s parliamentary system makes it hard to oust a coalition with a majority in the Knesset even if the public support is collapsing. Mr. Netanyahu‘s opponents would have to pass a “constructive no-confidence” vote that not only removes the current prime minister but elects another one in his place. Finding a consensus candidate has proven difficult.
Losing faith?
In Israel, anger and frustration with Mr. Netanyahu seem to still be bubbling beneath the surface even as the country’s attention has turned to the Oct. 7 attacks and subsequent war against Hamas.
The assault and its aftermath may themselves spell trouble for Mr. Netanyahu, now in his third stint as Israeli leader, having previously served from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to June 2021.
Before the attack, public trust in Mr. Netanyahu’s government already appeared shaky. Mr. Netanyahu returned to power last December after working behind the scenes to whip up opposition to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and an eight-party governing alliance that was united almost entirely by its desire to push Mr. Netanyahu out of power. That alliance governed Israel briefly before it eventually collapsed, paving the way for Mr. Netanyahu‘s return, which was supported by a broad coalition of right-wing and ultra-religious parties.
Polls show that Mr. Netanyahu‘s coalition would collapse if new elections were held today. A poll released earlier this month by Israel‘s Channel 12 found that the pro-Netanyahu coalition would win just 45 seats in the Knesset, compared to the 64 it won in last November’s elections.
That same survey also found that Israelis prefer Mr. Gantz over Mr. Netanyahu as prime minister, 41% to 25%. Mr. Netanyahu was tied with political opposition leader Yair Lapid, 29% to 29%, when respondents were asked to choose between those two men. A separate Israel Democracy Institute survey gave Mr. Netanyahu a 22% approval rating, while the government as a whole came in at just 14%.
Mr. Lapid refused to join Mr. Netanyahu‘s war cabinet when it was established last month. In the weeks since, he’s grown increasingly vocal about what he views as the need for new leadership in Jerusalem.
“The time has come — we need to establish a national reconstruction government. Likud will lead it, Netanyahu and the extremists will be replaced, over 90 members of the Knesset will be partners in the coalition for healing and reconnection,” he said in a social media post earlier this month.
Polls also show that Israelis overwhelmingly believe Mr. Netanyahu should assume responsibility for the Oct. 7 attacks. One such survey by Israel‘s Maariv newspaper last month found that a whopping 80% of Israelis believe the prime minister should publicly accept some responsibility.
There are several possible reasons why he hasn’t, analysts say.
“You could say that he is now a wartime prime minister who has a mandate and he has to win, and that he is not allowing himself to get drawn into the distraction of politics at a time that is crucial for the country. And then I’ve heard others say that this is a man who is refusing to accept responsibility for his own failure, which of course resonates among his opponents,” Mr. Schanzer said. “Which one is right? I’ll leave that to journalists to decide.”
And Mr. Netanyahu shows no signs of giving up power on his own. Asked point-blank at a recent press conference if he was considering resigning, he replied, “The only thing that I’m going to have resigned is Hamas. We’re going to resign them to the dustbin of history. That’s my goal. That’s my responsibility.”
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