The autumn of Bashar Assad’s dictatorship in December 2024 has ushered in a nerve-wracking time of hope and concern for Syrians regarding future governance within the long-war-torn nation.
Whereas it’s unclear what precise political path Syria will take, the dilemmas the nation faces are much like the experiences of different Arab international locations greater than a decade in the past. Within the winter of 2010, an outbreak of protests in Tunisia unfold throughout the area, toppling a number of regimes in what turned referred to as the Arab Uprisings.
Whereas some international locations – Egypt and Tunisia – turned democracies, albeit briefly, others, like Yemen, Libya and Syria, descended into violence.
Within the intervening years, political science students from internationally have examined these political transformations, why so a lot of Arab Rebellion international locations did not proceed down the trail of democratic reform. As a political scientist with experience within the area, I’ve distilled this analysis into 5 key classes that would assist information Syria now, because it seeks to construct a steady and democratic state.
1. Islamist politicians are politicians first, Islamists second
One of the crucial urgent questions when contemplating Syria’s post-Assad political path is the position performed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the insurgent group that led the overthrow of Assad.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is a former al-Qaida affiliate that has since backed away from extremist ideology – although there are worries that this moderation is momentary. Whereas some observers might imagine that each one Islamist teams wish to rigidly implement a slim interpretation of Islamic legislation just like the Taliban in Afghanistan, analysis exhibits a far wider vary of potentialities for the insurance policies Islamist teams implement whereas in workplace.
For instance, the Tunisian Islamist group Ennahda stalwartly defended democracy and helped write a liberal structure after the nation ousted Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. Equally, in Egypt after strongman chief Hosni Mubarak was eliminated the identical 12 months, the Muslim Brotherhood, a once-banned Islamist motion, competed efficiently and pretty within the democratic course of, although, after all, it confronted the identical challenges of any governing celebration in implementing insurance policies as soon as in energy.
Anti-government protesters rejoice in Tahrir Sq. in downtown Cairo in February 2011 after the autumn of then-President Hosni Mubarak.
AP Picture/Emilio Morenatti
However neither is such a path predetermined. Turkey’s current democratic backslide and embrace of authoritarianism exhibits that Islamist politicians like President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also can undermine democracy when it serves their pursuits.
What political science analysis has turned up repeatedly is that Islamist politicians are like politicians all over the place: When they should win elections, they are going to gravitate towards voter considerations. In keeping with regional survey information, a majority of Arabs specific a choice for non secular leaders who’re apolitical.
If Syria turns into a democracy, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will, I consider, doubtless should proceed to embrace moderation. However whether or not the group backs democracy depends upon the group’s calculation of what its future appears to be like like in democracy versus extra authoritarian types of governance. Broad negotiations that contain all events in Syria will help persuade Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that persevering with on a path of moderation is of their finest pursuits. Whereas nobody can forecast with certainty what Syria’s new establishments will seem like, analysis exhibits that Islamists are simply as doubtless as secular events to help democratic norms.
2. Ending corruption is all vital
One of many drivers of the Arab Spring and the Syrian revolution was anger over corrupt enterprise offers. Certainly, relations and cronies of Assad owned de facto monopolies over profitable industries like cellphone networks. Unwinding these corrupt legacies and opening industries to competitors and licensing needs to be an overriding precedence for these in search of a much less autocratic future.
In Tunisia, established companies fought anti-corruption reforms as a result of they stated it might damage funding and development. However the purpose that financial development is so poor in lots of elements of the Center East is exactly as a result of these entrenched firms.
Syria’s diaspora has many succesful businesspeople who can return and located progressive firms if the brand new authorities opens up funding and entrepreneurship past individuals with political connections.
3. Political disagreement is OK
Many hope that Syria’s new authorities will likely be freely and pretty elected. For democracy to work, although, it should efficiently implement adjustments in response to voters’ considerations.
Initially, Syria might want to determine on fundamental guidelines like a structure, which can contain many numerous teams. This broad coalition could have a neater time reaching compromises due to the opposition’s shared experiences underneath the prior dictatorship. Attempting to keep up this unity, nonetheless, can masks vital political debates that must happen.
To ensure that voters to see change, electoral competitors should yield precise coverage change. In Tunisia, top-heavy coalitions of events promoted unity as an alternative of tackling troublesome selections that resonated with individuals’s every day considerations. Over time, voters stopped figuring out with events and misplaced confidence in elections. Tunisia’s elected president, Kais Saied, took benefit of this apathy to close down the nation’s parliament – an motion that was broadly standard regardless of the lack of democracy.
A sensible response to this concern is to construct sturdy events, a trigger that pro-democracy organizations just like the Nationwide Democratic Institute are excellent at. Efficient events assist voters by placing collectively a bundle of insurance policies that may get via parliament and constructing coalitions.
Whereas Syria’s opposition has quite a lot of expertise with waging battle, it has comparatively little in the best way of working campaigns and constructing sturdy celebration manufacturers. These extra mundane objectives are the important thing connective tissue that makes democracy work.
Tunisians collect throughout a protest in opposition to President Kais Saied in Tunis in January 2023, months after the president enacted huge new presidential powers that largely sidelined the post-Arab Spring democratic adjustments.
AP Picture/Hassene Dridi
4. Bureaucracies ought to serve the general public
Elections select leaders, however lasting, standard change additionally requires bureaucrats who implement new insurance policies – what is named “horizontal accountability.” Egypt’s post-2011 democratic authorities left many state establishments untouched and later confronted a revolt from autonomous anti-democratic businesses. In the meantime, in Sudan, which noticed a quick interlude of liberalization after the ouster of its longtime dictator, Omar al-Bashir, in 2019, democratic reformers launched an bold overhaul of state establishments that also failed as a result of bureaucrats lobbied politicians for help.
With out cooperative bureaucrats, fundamental state companies fail, which results in phenomena like crime waves and a lack of confidence in democracy.
The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-led authorities in Syria has already began reforming bureaucracies by prosecuting high-ranking officers from the prior regime whereas retaining the rank and file. Efficient oversight, although, requires participation of elected leaders with the legitimacy to demand accountability from bureaucrats. For individuals who wish to be concerned in Syria’s transition, offering technical help to shortly rebuild ministries is one method to improve the percentages of a profitable transition.
5. Preserve the navy shut
If Syria’s new authorities collapses, historical past suggests the navy would be the more than likely perpetrator. Egypt’s navy undermined the nation’s democratic transition by covertly supporting the anti-Islamist opposition. Sudan’s navy acquiesced to protester calls for for brand spanking new management however saved de facto management of vital authorities establishments.
Current analysis exhibits that conserving the navy in examine means giving it a stake in democracy by funding wanted gadgets like salaries and tools. Simply as vital, nonetheless, is establishing civilian management over the navy by mandating that the navy report back to elected leaders about its budgets, insurance policies, and deployments. Navy assist is critical, sure, however nonetheless have to be tied to strict commitments to civilian management.
The long run is Syria’s
Political transitions are too complicated to embark on straightforward forecasts. However the expertise of countries who noticed democracy rise and fall within the Arab Spring and subsequent winter will help Syria’s new leaders keep away from pricey political errors.
Finally, although, the destiny of the nation rests with its personal individuals. They’re those who survived Assad’s regime – and who will make an important selections for Syria’s future.