The “no hire, no-fire” job market continues. Whereas we’re not but seeing a development towards widespread layoffs, it’s more and more troublesome to get employed. As we noticed earlier this month right here in Energy&Market, hires have gotten more and more uncommon. And, whereas new layoffs could also be transferring sideways—and never swiftly rising—the quantity of people that stay unemployed for a major interval after a layoff is rising.
For instance, in accordance with new unemployment numbers launched yesterday by the BLS, “continuing claims” for unemployment insurance coverage hit one other new cycle excessive in the course of the week of July 5. Whole persevering with unemployment claims reached 1,956,000 the week of July 5, up from 1,954,000 the week earlier than.
The four-week transferring common exhibits a transparent upward development:
The BLS exhibits a decline in new unemployment claims. However, the entire variety of staff who stay unemployed continues to inch upward. Whereas there isn’t any giant surge in layoffs, the variety of new hires stays muted. With 1.95 million staff persevering with on the unemployment rolls, the entire is on the highest for the reason that covid panic. If we exclude the covid interval, we’re wanting on the highest since March 2018, which was 381 months in the past.
Greg Robb at MarketWire reported Thursday on this “no-hire, no fire” economic system:
Persevering with claims have been on the highest degree since November 2021, an indication that staff are having bother discovering new positions after they’re laid off…
The four-week transferring common of those so-called persevering with claims was 1.957 million, the best degree since November 2021. That could be a signal that staff are having bother discovering new positions after they’re laid off.
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Massive image: Analysts mentioned the decline in claims this week was partly brought on by quirks within the information, because the mannequin was searching for shutdowns within the vehicle sector. There’s a danger that claims will transfer greater over the summer season, mentioned James Knightley, an economist at ING.
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Wanting via this noise, the info proceed to inform a no-hire, no-fire story for the labor market, mentioned Nancy Vanden Houten, senior economist at Oxford Economics.
