Is Iran poised for a succession in management? Properly, that is determined by what you learn.
For weeks, rumors have been swirling concerning the well being of the supreme chief of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in addition to a attainable alternative. In late October 2024, the Jerusalem Submit picked up a New York Instances report that originally steered the octogenarian chief, who has served within the position since 1989, was severely sick. Whereas the Instances report was up to date with a correction saying it had erroneously reported on what was identified about his present well being, it did say {that a} “quiet battle” had emerged over his succession, together with that his second son, Mojtaba, might succeed him.
The rumor mill once more kicked into overdrive in late November, with varied media shops, together with these in Israel, suggesting that Khamenei had fallen right into a coma and that the race was on to nominate his successor ought to he stay incapacitated or worse. Iranian sources shortly refuted the hypothesis.
Such conjecture is nothing new, with stories way back to 2007 and extra just lately in 2022 pointing to the supreme chief’s purportedly sick well being.
The reality of Khamenei’s well being apart, the hypothesis factors to an ever-present actuality: The battle between Iran on one aspect and Israel and the West on the opposite is not only about army would possibly and threats – there may be additionally an data battle being waged.
In that battle, the narrative of Khamenei’s poor well being will be seen as a proxy for the well being and stability of the Islamic Republic. One story has it that the Islamic Republic is unstable and only one main occasion away from wholesale change; the opposite, that the federal government in Tehran is nicely positioned to take care of each inner succession and exterior ideological foes.
The disagreement
The hypothesis relating to Khamenei’s well being comes amid a very tense second in Israeli-Iranian relations. For the previous yr, the long-time foes have exchanged fiery rhetoric, which has been exacerbated by a collection of escalatory occasions, together with high-profile assassinations of Iran-alligned figures in Gaza, Lebanon and Tehran, and extra these days direct army confrontation.
All through, either side have utilized media and on-line platforms to push opposing official narratives that then discover digital echo chambers.
Take the tit-for-tat missile strikes in October. Israel and Iran sought to downplay the affect of the respective strikes on their very own territory by feeding media with statements suggesting little harm had been finished.
On the similar time, media sources from inside each nations had been fast to counsel that the strikes had fulfilled their targets. Iranian media steered Iranian missiles hit about 90% of Israeli targets; Israeli media countered that main Iranian nuclear analysis amenities had been hit and severely impaired Iran’s analysis capabilities.
Such narratives are designed not solely to ship self-proclaimed messages of victory to the opposite aspect but additionally to appease home audiences. For Tehran, the messaging is meant to increase additional, specifically to regional companions – suggesting that Israel had been weakened by Iran’s assault and that Tehran nonetheless has their again.
Social media has performed a key position in getting these counter messages throughout to a wider public. Since 2010, Iran has sought to distort the social media panorama by the institution of pro-regime “sock puppets” that amplify pro-government propaganda. Former Iranian Intelligence Minister Heider Moslehi acknowledged again in 2011 that Tehran had made a big funding in “heavy information warfare.”
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses lawmakers within the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, in Jerusalem on Nov. 18, 2024.
AP Picture/Ohad Zwigenberg
In the meantime, Israel and different opponents of the Iranian authorities make the most of on-line platforms to hold messages on to the individuals of Iran, too. Each Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the previous Shah of Iran, have used YouTube and different platforms to encourage insurrection in opposition to the federal government in Tehran.
Iran has used related digital channels, with veteran diplomat Mohammad Javad Zarif utilizing the platform to spotlight Iran’s tradition and historical past and shared values with Jews, whereas on the similar time slamming the Israeli authorities for its position in pushing the Trump administration to desert the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.
What does all of it imply?
The change of missile strikes by Iran and Israel in October prompted widespread hypothesis amongst media shops, politicians and diplomats that the area was getting ready to a full-scale typical battle.
Certainly, the rhetorical exchanges between Tehran and Tel Aviv embody express threats of devastating retaliatory measures and warnings of serious escalation. But the cycle of reciprocal strikes has, up to now, appeared to fulfill the strategic goals of either side’ army management.
And for now, the knowledge and messaging battle is once more seemingly taking priority over precise sizzling battle.
After the final missile strike, carried out by Israel on Oct. 26, Iran said that it retained the fitting to reply at a time and methodology of its selecting. However that, too, was maybe an extension of the media narrative marketing campaign.
Quite, the present scenario suggests to me a deliberate and calculated technique by each Iranian and Israeli forces to preserve their respective army sources, whereas making an attempt to attain home and regional goals by way of the knowledge battle.
For Israel, this implies pushing the narrative that it has displayed the aptitude to succeed in essential Iranian infrastructure and delicate safety targets as desired. For Iran, it takes the type of saying it has reestablished enough deterrence in opposition to a stronger Israeli army.
Having escalated into direct army confrontation, the Iran-Israel battle seems to have entered a brand new transitional part.
Iranian state media proceed to sentence Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon, whereas concurrently issuing statements from senior army commanders reaffirming Tehran’s readiness to answer perceived acts of aggression.
However for now, at the very least, warfare is being carried out by way of data and disinformation slightly than by typical army weapons.