The brutal 54-year reign of the Assad household in Syria seems to be over.
In a matter of days, opposition forces took the key metropolis of Aleppo earlier than advancing southward into different government-controlled areas of Hama, Homs and eventually, on Dec 7, 2024, the capital, Damascus.
The offensive was all of the extra astonishing provided that the 13-year civil warfare had largely been in a stalemate since a 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey.
Studies recommend President Bashar al-Assad has resigned and left the nation. However what has he left behind and what occurs subsequent?
As an knowledgeable on Center East safety, I consider the opposition forces’ potential to keep up unity might be essential within the transition to a post-Assad Syria. For the reason that civil warfare began in 2011, the numerous opposition factions in Syria have been fractured by ideological variations and the pursuits of exterior backers – and that is still true regardless of their present victory.
In the meantime, the speedy change of fortunes in Syria’s civil warfare poses critical questions for these nations which have backed one facet or the opposite within the battle. For Iran and Russia, the autumn of their ally Assad will injury regional aspirations. For the backers of components of the opposition – notably Turkey but additionally the U.S., each of which keep a navy presence in Syria – there might be challenges, too.
Fears of a ‘catastrophic success’
Iran, the U.S., Russia and Turkey have been essential gamers all through Syria’s civil warfare.
The current opposition offensive got here as Assad’s three key allies — Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah — have been stretched skinny. Russia’s give attention to Ukraine and Iran’s setbacks from Israeli strikes have restricted their potential to offer Assad strong assist, whereas Hezbollah appeared hesitant to commit further fighters, because it had finished beforehand.
Then, on Dec. 2, as opposition forces have been on the transfer, Russia started withdrawing naval property from its strategic Mediterranean base at Tartus, Syria. This erosion of exterior backing considerably undermined Assad’s capability to regroup and mount an efficient counteroffensive.
Syrians have fun the autumn of Bashar al-Assad’s authorities within the city of Bar Elias, Lebanon, close to the border with Syria, on Dec. 8, 2024.
AP Photograph/Hassan Ammar
The U.S. will little question welcome this diminished Russian and Iranian affect in Syria. However concern in Washington has already been aired over a state of affairs of “catastrophic success” by which Assad is changed by an Islamist group that many within the West see as terrorists.
It was members of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that spearheaded a lot of the opposition features in Syria, preventing alongside the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military.
And whereas Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has in a roundabout way focused the U.S. troops stationed within the northeast – which is underneath the management of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces – instability and the potential for clashes between opposition factions and U.S. allies may enhance the dangers for the 900 Syria-based American personnel.
A fragmented panorama
The truth that totally different opposition teams have taken management of varied once-government-held areas factors to an important truth: Syria is de facto partitioned. The northwest is managed by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military. The northeast is underneath the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, supported by america.
Regardless of a shared objective of ousting Assad and the joint offensive on Aleppo, conflicts between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian Nationwide Military are frequent. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani goals to say management over opposition-held areas, together with these presently managed by the Syrian Nationwide Military.
And the Syrian Nationwide Military and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham keep complicated, typically conflicting relationships with the Syrian Democratic Forces, formed by ideological, territorial and strategic variations. The Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military often engages in direct clashes with the Syrian Protection Forces, which Turkey views as a terrorist group and an offshoot of the Kurdistan Employees Celebration it has been preventing in southern Turkey for greater than 4 a long time.
The opposition’s inside fragmentation might weaken its potential to convey stability to Syria in the long term.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assist for his Syrian counterpart seems diminished on account of the warfare in Ukraine.
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Pictures
Adjustment issues
Assad’s fall may have main implications for these nations which have a stake within the area.
Iran’s grand technique of preserving the “Shia Crescent” — connecting Tehran to Beirut by way of Baghdad and Damascus and within the course of countering Sunni Islamist factions — has failed.
For Washington, Assad’s departure doesn’t essentially match any hoped-for end result.
The U.S. has prioritized balancing, containing and probably diminishing Russian and Iranian affect in Syria. However till lately that didn’t imply the removing of Assad. The Biden administration had even hinted in early December that it could be ready to raise sanctions on Syria if Assad severed ties with Iran and Hezbollah.
There was additionally discuss of Assad’s authorities allying with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. However as metropolis after metropolis fell to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military, it turned more and more unlikely that the Kurdish group would align with the weakening Assad forces – particularly as Kurdish forces themselves made vital territorial features.
Syrian Democratic Forces might want to adapt in response to the autumn of Assad. This might be doubly true if, as many anticipate and President-elect Donald Trump has hinted at, the U.S. withdraws from Syria.
At present, the 900 U.S. troops are in jap Syria, alongside a navy base in Al-Tanf, positioned close to the Iraqi and Jordanian borders.
Ought to American forces withdraw, the Syrian Democratic Forces and the autonomous area it administers — generally known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria — would wish to barter their autonomy with each totally different factions of the opposition and Syrian neighbor Turkey.
A Kurdish and Islamist alliance?
The precarious function of Syrian Democratic Forces within the transition to the post-Assad period may make for a big international coverage headache for the U.S.
Given Turkey’s historical past of navy incursions and campaigns towards the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern cities like Afrin and Kobani, the Kurdish group might have to align with some factions of the opposition, possible Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, ought to the U.S. ultimately withdraw.
Of late, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has largely prevented antagonizing the Syrian Democratic Forces. Certainly, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s efforts to rebrand and reasonable itself are notable, particularly given its origins as a Salafist group with ties to al-Qaida.
By adopting a spread of insurance policies like issuing an amnesty for Syrian military personnel, facilitating evacuation agreements and utilizing the language of constructing an ethnically and religiously numerous governance construction, the Islamist group has tried to melt its hardline picture and achieve favor – or a minimum of neutrality – from worldwide stakeholders, just like the U.S.
But skepticism about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s final targets persists.
Strategic calculations for Turkey
Turkey’s place on Syria now could be equally complicated. Turkey is house to three.6 million Syrian refugees — the most important refugee-hosting nation globally. A chronic financial downturn and rising anti-refugee sentiment had pressured Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to sign a willingness to interact with Assad previous to the opposition offensive.
Turkey’s hope was that normalized relations with Syria would assist facilitate refugee return and deal with considerations a few potential Kurdish state in northeastern Syria.
However Assad dismissed such overtures, and intensified airstrikes on Idlib – triggering new waves of displacement close to the Turkish border.
Turkey’s Syria coverage can also be carefully linked to its renewed peace course of with the Kurdistan Employees’ Celebration. These talks reportedly embrace discussions concerning the potential launch of imprisoned Kurdistan Employees’ Celebration chief Abdullah Öcalan – whose affect runs deep in Kurdish-led areas in northern Syria.
The prospect for a brand new Syria
The obvious finish of Assad’s rule after half a century of brutal oppression signifies a pivotal second for Syria – providing a possibility to rebuild the nation on foundations of inclusivity, pluralism and stability.
Attaining this imaginative and prescient is dependent upon the opposition factions’ potential to navigate the immense challenges of transition. This consists of fostering unity amongst numerous teams, addressing grievances from years of battle and establishing governance constructions that mirror Syria’s ethnic, spiritual and political variety. That might be no straightforward process.