Throughout the nation, calls went out from activists to rethink the scope and function of the police. Some on the left vowed to “defund” the police. Others on the fitting promised to as a substitute “back the blue” and keep or enhance police funding.
This rhetorical tug-of-war unfolded whereas many cities throughout the nation grappled with spiking crime charges throughout the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Blaming crime on Democratic metropolis leaders was a centerpiece of Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential marketing campaign. He repeatedly made claims about crime spikes in recent times with out proof or context.
Extra lately, Republican congressional leaders have known as a number of Democratic mayors from throughout the nation to testify earlier than Congress about their sanctuary metropolis insurance policies which are aimed toward defending noncitizens from deportation. These congressional politicians have asserted that these Democratic mayors – Brandon Johnson of Chicago, Mike Johnston of Denver, Michelle Wu of Boston, and Eric Adams of New York – have “created a public safety nightmare” of their cities by permitting immigrants with out authorized authorization to remain there.
Journalists and politicians on either side of the aisle have claimed that native election outcomes over the previous 4 years in locations like San Francisco and Los Angeles replicate a widespread frustration with Democratic insurance policies on crime in cities.
Underneath this argument, Democratic metropolis leaders want to alter their strategy on crime to fulfill voters. It’s grow to be a political axiom of kinds that insurance policies championed largely by Democratic metropolis leaders over the previous half decade have resulted in rising crime ranges.
As researchers of politics and public coverage, we wished to determine if that was true.
A New York Occasions headline from June 8, 2022, linking crime charges and the Democratic Get together.
The New York Occasions
Neither get together does a greater job
As any scholar of introductory statistics learns, correlation doesn’t suggest causation. Taking a look at will increase or decreases in crime charges in Republican or Democratic cities and claiming both get together is responsible could be making precisely this error: complicated correlation with causation.
We put to the check the argument that one aspect or the opposite is best at combating crime in our analysis revealed in January 2025. By using three many years of information on mayoral elections from throughout the nation, we have been in a position to disentangle metropolis leaders’ partisanship from different options of cities.
Opposite to a lot of the political rhetoric and media protection aimed toward most Individuals, our outcomes present that neither get together is doing a greater job at really inflicting crime to lower.
In Dallas, Mayor Eric Johnson has claimed that Democratic leaders aren’t taking public security critically and that the Democratic Get together is “with the criminals.” Johnson switched from being a Democrat to a Republican in 2023 and attributes his determination no less than partially to this partisan distinction on crime and policing and the seriousness with which he takes this coverage problem.
However our analysis exhibits that Johnson’s and others’ claims about Democratic cities turning into extra harmful simply aren’t true: Mayors from the Democratic Get together aren’t making cities any extra – or much less – harmful than mayors from the Republican Get together.
Nor, it seems, is there any help for claims by some progressive Democrats that they would cut back the function – and large budgets – of police departments in cities throughout the nation.
After we examined the variety of sworn law enforcement officials in cities and the way a lot cash these cities spend on the police, Democratic and Republican mayors alike have had surprisingly little affect on police division budgets or sizes.
In different phrases, Democrats aren’t reducing police budgets, nor are Republicans rising police budgets. Most cities have elevated police budgets up to now few years, presumably as a consequence of strain from police unions.
Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson speaks throughout the second day of the 2024 Republican Nationwide Conference in Milwaukee on July 16, 2024.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP by way of Getty Photos
‘Crime is nonpartisan’
It seems that marketing campaign guarantees from either side of the partisan aisle about crime and policing have little bearing on what’s occurring on the bottom in most cities and police departments throughout the nation.
Neither get together is doing a greater job at lowering crime. Neither is both get together really addressing the ballooning monetary value of native police forces within the U.S., nor the long-term reputational prices from police misconduct for belief within the police and authorities extra broadly.
As others have mentioned: crime is nonpartisan.
Crime has decreased throughout the U.S. throughout the previous three many years general, and the remoted cities the place crime has elevated lately can reverse these short-term developments.
Partisan blame narratives do little to really decrease crime and make neighborhoods safer, although.
There are actual evidence-backed insurance policies that scale back crime – comparable to youth jobs applications in Chicago and Boston. Different insurance policies scale back racial disparities within the prison justice system – comparable to different 911 response applications that use unarmed behavioral well being employees to answer some kinds of emergencies.
These insurance policies and interventions won’t be as slogan-worthy as “defund the police” or “back the blue.” Neither is implementing these insurance policies as politically handy as blaming sanctuary metropolis mayors. However analysis exhibits that they work and might transfer cities towards the shared purpose of improved public security for his or her residents.
