Georgia was the one state the place Trump had a damaging VAR (-1.0) regardless that he nonetheless gained it as a part of his battleground state sweep and his 312-226 Electoral Faculty victory. Trump’s sturdy performances in Nevada (+3.4), Michigan (+3.3), and Arizona (+1.9), and his +0.9 VAR in Wisconsin practically pulled these states’ Republican Senate nominees throughout the road with him, which might have given his get together a surprising eight-seat achieve. (Senate Republicans ended up flipping 4 seats, nonetheless sufficient to win the bulk.)
Regardless of greater than 90 felony indictments (and 34 convictions) since he was final president, and 4 further years of luggage from being within the political area, 2024 marked Trump’s strongest exhibiting in a presidential race, based on VAR.
In 2020, he posted a constructive VAR in simply 4 of the 12 closest presidential states. He did higher than a median GOP statewide candidate in Iowa (+1.7), Michigan (+0.3), Minnesota (+1.6) and Pennsylvania (+2), however worse than the common Republican in Arizona (-2.0), Florida (-0.7), Georgia (-3.8), Nevada (-0.8), North Carolina (-0.7), Ohio (-1.4), Texas (-3.2) and Wisconsin (-0.1).
And in 2016, Trump underperformed in seven of the ten closest states however nonetheless gained the election by the Electoral Faculty as a result of Hillary Clinton did even worse. She had a damaging VAR within the 4 closest states (Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and that was sufficient to lock her out of the presidency.