Florida has undergone a dramatic political transformation over the previous decade from a swing state to Republican stronghold.
Florida’s latest congressional particular election on April 1, 2025, showcased the state’s more and more conservative id, when Republicans gained each congressional seats.
Nonetheless, Democrats felt hopeful about these outcomes, because the two Democratic contenders misplaced by slimmer margins within the 1st and sixth districts than in different latest elections.
As a political anthropologist who has carried out fieldwork in central Florida, I’ve spent over 5 years monitoring the expansion of conservative political teams just like the Proud Boys and Mothers for Liberty, whose leaderships are based mostly in Florida.
I’ve seen firsthand how conservative activist networks and the expansion of tradition struggle politics, amongst different elements, have reshaped Florida’s political id.
Florida’s Republican state Sen. Randy Nice holds a victory social gathering on April 1, 2025, in Ormond Seaside, Fla.
Joe Raedle/Getty Photos
The state that stopped swinging
Though political strategists have traditionally thought of Florida a swing state in presidential elections, it has persistently voted Republican since 1948.
It has solely voted for Democratic presidential candidates 5 instances since 1964, for Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Invoice Clinton and twice for Barack Obama. President Donald Trump has gained Florida 3 times in a row, most just lately profitable the 2024 election in all however six of Florida’s 67 counties.
The principle battleground since 2000 has been the I-4 Hall, which connects Tampa, Orlando and Daytona. In 2000, President George W. Bush gained the hall by 4,400 votes. Since Bush solely gained Florida by 537 votes, and thus the presidency, the realm turned a high precedence for each political events.
Some Democrats have mentioned Florida’s political evolution occurred regularly after which abruptly.
In 2012, there have been virtually 1.5 million extra registered Democratic voters than Republicans in Florida. In 2020, Democrats’ benefit dropped to about 97,000. And by September 2024, there have been virtually 1 million extra registered Republicans than Democrats.
Steve Schale, the pinnacle of Obama’s 2008 marketing campaign in Florida, argues that this shift occurred as a result of the Democratic Occasion misplaced the assist of some white voters.
Republicans have additionally actively courted Hispanic voters, whereas Democrats falsely believed that younger Hispanics would inherently lean towards their social gathering.
This assumption has damage the Democratic trigger as a result of, for instance, some Hispanic voters in Florida, like many Cuban Individuals, have lengthy favored Republican. The truth is, Trump carried out so properly with Hispanics in Florida in 2024 that it was the one state during which he acquired extra of the Hispanic vote than Kamala Harris.
State-level conservative success
Florida has additionally had a Republican governor since 1998, a state Senate Republican majority since 1995 and a state Home majority since 1997. This Republican dominance has solely grown since Trump’s 2016 election.
In 2018, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis acquired Trump’s endorsement and went from being comparatively unknown within the gubernatorial primaries to the Republican nominee. He finally assumed workplace in 2019.
Since then, DeSantis has efficiently handed a slew of legal guidelines and insurance policies reflecting the conservative values of what he noticed as the brand new Floridian citizens.
For instance, DeSantis handed a six-week abortion ban measure into legislation in 2023.
With DeSantis’ approval, Florida’s state Legislature additionally blocked range, fairness and inclusion applications in state schools in 2023 and banned classes on sexual orientation and gender id for public grade college college students that very same yr.
In 2023, the Florida governor additionally signed a legislation that allowed folks to hold hid weapons and not using a allow.
The pandemic issue
Some conservative political pundits and DeSantis supporters say that the governor’s COVID-19 insurance policies are among the many elements which have attracted newcomers to the state.
Nearly 300,000 folks moved from out of state to Florida between April 2020 and April 2021, equal to roughly 903 folks relocating to the state every day.
The governor ordered Floridians to remain at dwelling throughout April 2020, however a lot of his restrictions have been lifted on the finish of the month.
DeSantis didn’t implement masks mandates, vaccine necessities and different measures that have been frequent in different states.
Throughout my fieldwork in Florida from 2022 by way of 2024, I met a number of individuals who moved to rural elements of the state as a result of they didn’t need their lives to be severely restricted in the course of the pandemic.
One man in his early 50s said, “During COVID my wife and I realized how screwed we were if things got really bad. We hated the lockdowns and got scared about not having enough food. If things got really bad, we didn’t want to trust other people, we wanted to be self-sufficient. So, we decided to get a place in the middle of the woods, on our own property, that we could go to if everything went to hell.”
This couple settled on shifting from out of state to a rural space of Florida, the place they thought they’d one of the best probability of avoiding future lockdown restrictions.
DeSantis’ coverage successes and his “freedom first” response to the pandemic have been celebrated by conservatives nationally.
Mothers for Liberty members in Viera, Fla., protest pupil face masks mandates in 2023.
Paul Hennessy/SOPA Photos/LightRocket through Gety Photos
Florida’s dwelling for the alt-right
As Florida lawmakers have continued to push conservative insurance policies because the pandemic, Florida-based activist teams like Mothers for Liberty have mobilized to assist and broaden them.
Mothers for Liberty was based in 2021 by three Florida former college board members who opposed COVID-19 laws in the course of the pandemic.
Mothers for Liberty is headquartered in Melbourne, Florida, and is targeted on reshaping public college curriculum to exclude what its members see as “woke” themes, like sexual orientation.
The group lobbied for the 2022 Parental Rights in Training Act and the Cease-Woke Act, referred to by critics because the “Don’t Say Gay” legislation. This legislation restricts Florida lecture rooms from instructing youngsters in kindergarten by way of third grade about sexual orientation and gender id, and in addition limits instruction on these topics in larger grades.
Florida has more and more turn into a stronghold for different kinds of political activists, a few of whom have been instrumental within the Capitol riots on Jan. 6, 2021. Florida was dwelling to 11.5% of the 716 individuals who have been initially charged with collaborating within the Capitol riots.
Probably the most notable of those Jan. 6 arrests is Enrique Tarrio, a Miami native who has served because the symbolic chief of the Proud Boys, an alt-right “Western chauvinist” group.
Alt-right activists are a minority of Florida’s conservative inhabitants. In my fieldwork, I’ve spoken to many Florida conservatives who didn’t determine with the Proud Boys or different alt-right teams – however have been nonetheless sympathetic to a lot of their populist and conservative causes.
Now not in play?
Florida is now a serious Republican stronghold with Floridians turning into more and more distinguished in nationwide politics. Trump’s Cupboard has 23 folks – 16 of them are related to Florida.
These embrace Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who served as a senator in Florida, and Legal professional Normal Pam Bondi, who served as Florida’s state legal professional common.
Although some Democrats could really feel optimistic concerning the particular election outcomes, they’ve misplaced the Sunshine State, not less than for now.
