With the 2024 U.S. election over and carried out with, political analysts and each main events are already turning their consideration to the upcoming midterm elections in 2026.
All 435 seats within the Home of Representatives and 33 Senate seats might be up for grabs. The Democrats are as determined to retake management of Congress as Republicans are to maintain it. A Democratic-controlled Congress in 2026 would do all the things in its energy to halt President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda in its tracks.
To edge out their opponent, candidates in extremely aggressive districts should win over some voters who rejected their very own get together’s presidential candidate in 2024. Democratic candidates might want to get assist from at the least some Trump voters; Republicans will want some assist from Kamala Harris voters.
Regardless of the intensely polarized U.S. political atmosphere, a major variety of Individuals routinely cross get together strains to assist each Democratic and Republican candidates on the polls. When it occurs on the identical poll, that is referred to as ticket-splitting.
Simply who’re these voters, and when do they select to separate their tickets?
I’m a political scientist who research American voting habits. I see these questions as key to understanding how lengthy Trump’s complete management of presidency will final.
Cut up tickets in North Carolina and Arizona
Ticket-splitting created some stunning election returns in 2024, principally benefiting down-ballot Democrats.
As an example, Republican Donald Trump received North Carolina by round 3 proportion factors, however voters elected a Democrat, Josh Stein, for governor by a margin of virtually 15 proportion factors. A number of hundred thousand North Carolinians break up their tickets to supply this final result.
Greater than 100,000 Arizonans likewise break up their tickets in 2024, electing Trump with 52% of the vote, but rejecting the Trump-aligned Senate candidate Kari Lake in favor of Democrat Ruben Gallego.
Many specialists consider that candidates equivalent to Gallego and Stein had been merely perceived as much less excessive than their opponents, and they also lured average voters and even some Republicans.
On this principle, excessive MAGA-aligned candidates win main elections as a result of they entice probably the most partisan voters. However they flip off many individuals within the common citizens.
Marylanders break up their tickets
Probably the most excessive examples of ticket-splitting in 2024 was within the race to switch U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland.
Partyliners or ticket-splitters? Maryland voters forged their ballots in Baltimore on Nov. 5, 2024.
J. Countess/Getty Pictures
Cardin was a retiring three-term Democrat who had final received reelection in 2018 by an astronomical margin of over 34 proportion factors. Initially, many skilled analysts noticed the seat as protected for Democrats.
Then, in February 2024, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who had beforehand dominated out a Senate run, stunned political analysts by coming into the Republican main. After profitable the first handily, Hogan finally squared off in opposition to Prince George’s County Government Angela Alsobrooks, a Democrat, within the common election.
Instantly, a matchup that ought to have been Alsobrook’s to lose acquired aggressive.
Angela Alsobrooks celebrates her win on Nov. 5, 2024, in School Park, Md.
Graeme Sloan for The Washington Publish by way of Getty Pictures
Hogan, who left workplace in 2023, was a profitable Republican governor who received election twice in reliably blue Maryland. Perceived by many citizens as an ideological average, he was additionally a vocal Trump opponent in a state that supported Biden over Trump in 2020 by round 33 proportion factors. Throughout his governorship, Hogan routinely outperformed MAGA-aligned Republicans who ran for Congress in Maryland.
In the end, Hogan did lose to Alsobrooks. She turned Maryland’s first feminine U.S. senator and first Black U.S. senator. But Hogan got here an unbelievable 17 proportion factors nearer to profitable than Trump did. Kamala Harris beat Trump by 1.9 million votes, profitable 63% of the citizens to Trump’s 34%.
Because of this Hogan exceeded Trump’s vote complete by over 300,000 votes. That’s an immense quantity of ticket-splitting by Marylanders in 2024.
Who’re the Hogan Democrats?
To raised perceive ticket-splitting in Maryland’s 2024 election, I analyzed a survey that my college carried out in Baltimore County. Baltimore County is a bellwether county that has backed the profitable gubernatorial candidate in each election since 2006.
The UMBC Battleground Exit Ballot surveyed 1,119 voters at election precincts throughout Baltimore County throughout early voting and on Election Day 2024. The outcomes had been weighted to make sure demographic representativeness.
This in depth survey reveals that round 10% of all voters in Baltimore County supported the stunning mixture of the Democrat Harris and the Republican Hogan.
In distinction, fewer than 2% of Trump voters break up their tickets to again the Democratic Senate candidate Alsobrooks.
My workforce’s information evaluation reveals that roughly half of Harris-Hogan voters – 51% – had been Democrats. These ticket-splitters included a better proportion of white voters than the Democrats who supported each Harris and Alsobrooks. Round 37% of Harris-Hogan voters recognized as Black, Asian, Hispanic, Center Jap or one other nonwhite racial class, in contrast with 55% of Harris-Alsobrooks voters.
We discovered nearly no gender variations between Democrats who break up their tickets to again a girl for president and a person for Senate and people who backed two girls candidates.
Harris-Hogan Democrats tended to be higher educated than different voting teams. Round 68% reported having a university diploma, in contrast with round 51% of all survey respondents.
Maybe probably the most putting function of Harris-Hogan voters is their self-declared moderation.
On a seven-point ideological scale starting from “very liberal” to “very conservative,” round 61% of Harris-Hogan ticket-splitters put themselves on the actual midpoint of the size. Solely round 42% of the complete pattern of Maryland voters categorized themselves as centrist.
Can moderates survive in Trump’s shadow?
As our examine reveals, Hogan’s reputation in Maryland is due partly to his enchantment amongst moderates. This discovering helps to clarify how this Republican has remained in style amongst Democrats and impartial voters.
Nonetheless, Hogan nonetheless misplaced. In contrast to in Arizona, the place the Democratic Senate candidate Ruben Gallego received by wooing average Republicans, the tenuous steadiness of energy within the U.S. Home and Senate might have prevented some Democratic and impartial voters in Maryland from crossing the aisle to assist a average Republican.
After all, Hogan additionally confronted a formidable opponent. Alsobrooks had already emerged victorious in a good main in opposition to a well-funded and in style incumbent U.S. Home consultant, David Trone. I believe a less-skilled Democratic candidate would have created much more Harris-Hogan voters.
In the end, my evaluation of ticket-splitting in 2024 reveals that even in an period of entrenched polarization, many citizens method congressional and presidential races with completely different mindsets.
This dynamic will probably affect the following election cycle, too.
The get together of the president typically takes heavy losses in midterm elections. In 2026, congressional candidates – and Democrats particularly – might be doing all the things they’ll to woo moderates.
This might be very true if Trump’s aggressive insurance policies, equivalent to widespread authorities layoffs and mass deportations, show unpopular.
Let the campaigning start.