Should you’ve been being attentive to how jobs information is reported on this nation, you understand how the rip-off has labored over the previous two years: first, launch a really optimistic jobs numbers—usually labeled a “blowout” jobs quantity. When this quantity comes out, the standard media “journalists” and finance pundits inform us all how completely wonderful the US jobs market is. Then, after the preliminary studies have died down, and most of the people is not paying consideration, the federal authorities then quietly releases revised numbers that present the roles scenario for that month was really significantly much less spectacular than initially reported. This has occurred practically each month in 2025, with revised numbers repeatedly coming in under—usually nicely under—the preliminary reported numbers.
In March, for instance, we have been informed that jobs went up by 228,000 in that month. Then, by the third revision, the quantity was diminished by extra 100,000 jobs, with the ultimate quantity being solely 120,000. In Might, this revision course of has reached nearly absurd proportions. For instance, in Might, the preliminary report was that the US economic system noticed 139,000 new jobs throughout the month. After the ultimate revision, that quantity was diminished to mere 19,000 jobs. Issues have been even worse for June, with the preliminary whole of 147,000 jobs revised all the way down to unfavorable 13,000 within the last revision. (We’ve but to see the ultimate revision for July.)
[Learn Extra: “The Jobs Economy Worsens as Full-Time Work and Manufacturing Jobs Disappear“ by Ryan McMaken]
The job market has become so bad that July’s initial jobs total was only 73,000, and August’s initial number is 22,000.
But June’s number really sticks out like a sore thumb right now because it shows actual month-over-month job losses in June. This is notable because the BLS almost never reports month-over-month job losses in any month unless that month occurs during a recession or in the early months of recovery after a recession.
When was the last time we saw a month-to-month decline in jobs? We have to go back to December 2020 to see that—back when the economy was in a terrible state thanks to covid lockdowns and the general covid panic. Before that, we find month-over-month jobs losses during March and April 2020, during the depths of the covid recession. To find a month of negative job growth before that, we have to go all the way back to 2010, when the jobs market was still digging itself out of the Great Recession.
In other words, for decades, a month of job losses is a sign of an extremely weak or recessionary situation. We also find month-over-month job losses during 2008, in the midst of the 2007-2008 recession itself. And, of course, we saw many months of job losses in the wake of the dot-com bust, from 2001 through much of 2003.
There’s really no way to portray this jobs report—and the included revisions—as anything we might call a “solid” jobs scenario. With a mean of solely 29,000 jobs added monthly over the previous three months—and with most of these jobs being half time jobs—the roles scenario is basically flatlining in the USA.
Oddly sufficient, the Trump administration didn’t complain concerning the statisticians when the BLS was publishing “blowout” optimistic numbers—just like the preliminary studies for March and April—when numbers favored the administration. Apparently, the statisticians have been doing an ideal job in April. However now that the numbers look dangerous for Trump, the statisticians are out of the blue doing a nasty job.
Trump blamed the large downward revisions for Might and June on the statisticians who trump claims try to make Trump look dangerous. The reality is that the federal quantity crunchers haven’t actually modified their track and dance in additional than 18 months. Throughout early 2024, it grew to become obvious that the BLS was repeatedly placing out superb preliminary numbers, solely to be adopted by massive downward revisions. This didn’t cease with Trump’s inauguration, and continues to at the present time. If the job numbers at the moment are beginning to look worse, it’s probably as a result of the employment scenario is significantly worse now, in comparison with 2024. However who will be stunned by this? Credit score-fueled expansions don’t final ceaselessly, and as sticky value inflation refused to go away in 2024, the Fed couldn’t merely hold the easy-money flowing to create the impression of a robust job market. That will have labored in 2021 and 2022, however then value inflation hit a 40-year excessive and the Fed needed to reduce its runaway financial inflation to maintain value inflation from getting completely out of hand. However, after two years of rampant cash printing to the tune of 5 trillion {dollars}, it took practically two years for the job market to replicate how the Fed had let up on the financial accelerator.
That’s what we’re now seeing. The simple-money fueled job development of the post-covid inflationary bonanza is lastly displaying its disagreeable draw back. That is made worse by trump’s enormous tax will increase within the type of tariffs, however the origins of the present slowdown lie within the financial increase that got here earlier than. The one solution to keep away from a continued stagnation—or outright bust—within the jobs economic system is to step on the financial accelerator. That nevertheless, would proceed to impoverish unusual Individuals that suffer from the worth inflation of the Trump-Biden years. The selection now’s between a jobs bust, renewed aggressive value inflation, or Japan-style stagnation. Trump can blame the statisticians all he needs, however the grim actuality is getting tougher to cover.
