The U.S. appears set to have its first-ever Cuban American secretary of state in 2025, after President-elect Donald Trump nominated U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida for the function. However don’t count on that to imply cozier relations between Havana and Washington.
Rubio, who if confirmed by the Senate can even be the primary Latino to carry the publish, is likely one of the most hawkish members of Congress in relation to the communist-run island. Certainly, one current profile of Trump’s choose for prime diplomat described Rubio as “Cuba’s worst nightmare.”
So how will Rubio’s antipathy for the communist authorities in Cuba – alongside Trump’s want to be seen as a dealmaker – have an effect on U.S.-Cuban ties?
As a historian of U.S.-Cuban relations, I do know that ties between the 2 nations have been fraught for greater than 60 years.
After overthrowing U.S.-supported dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959, Fidel Castro nationalized U.S.-owned property and have become an ally of the Soviet Union towards the US. He additionally supported left-wing revolutions in Latin America and Africa,difficult U.S. world pursuits.
In response, successive U.S. presidents have prohibited commerce with Cuba and most journey to the island by U.S. residents for the reason that Sixties.
There was a short thaw in relations throughout the Obama administration.
However Trump reinstated the U.S.’s coverage of confrontation with Cuba between 2016 to 2020 – a interval marked by a tightened embargo on the island and elevated rancor between Washington and Havana.
That will effectively occur once more below Trump’s second administration – however that isn’t sure. There’s additionally the potential for modifications in U.S.-Cuban relations. Maybe, even, there are causes to consider the dynamic could enhance.
From thaw to Cuban chill
Little question, Trump and Rubio are critics of Havana’s communist authorities.
Rubio’s household emigrated from Cuba to the U.S. within the Fifties earlier than the triumph of Castro’s revolution in 1959.
As senator, he has opposed any loosening of both the U.S. commerce embargo with Cuba or journey restrictions on U.S. residents wishing to go to the island.
Cubans in Miami exhibit towards their authorities on July 17, 2021.
Eva Marie Uzcategui/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
When the Obama administration started establishing formal diplomatic relations with Cuba in 2014, for instance, Rubio was among the many plan’s most vocal critics.
As a part of this thaw, President Barack Obama additionally loosened journey restrictions, eliminated Cuba from the State Division’s listing of countries that sponsor terrorism, and made it simpler for Individuals to ship cash to relations in Cuba.
Trump reversed these insurance policies after getting into the White Home in 2017.
Although the administration by no means severed diplomatic relations, Trump’s State Division primarily closed the embassy in Havana and stopped the processing of visas for Cubans wishing to journey to the U.S.
His administration additionally positioned Cuba as soon as extra on the listing of nation’s that sponsor terrorism.
Reportedly, Cuba was not excessive on the listing of Trump’s priorities in his first time period, in contrast to immigration. However he did want to fulfill the calls for of Rubio and his Cuban American constituents in South Florida who strongly favored a troublesome line towards Havana.
And as a senator, Rubio has been Cuban Individuals’ foremost advocate and Cuba’s principal antagonist within the U.S. Congress.
Trump’s subsequent strikes
Although his stance on Cuba was much less daring than Obama’s, President Joe Biden lessened some restrictions imposed by the primary Trump administration.
His administration, for instance, made it simpler to ship cash to Cuba, together with different modifications ostensibly designed to help the Cuban folks, not the Cuban state. The U.S. embassy additionally started processing visas.
The embargo, nevertheless, remained enforced and untouched.
It’s affordable to imagine that Trump will reverse Biden’s tentative measures. If the previous presents any information, the American embassy could cut back its operations and with it droop the processing of visa functions. Trump has additionally vowed to remove the humanitarian parole program by way of which not less than 100,000 Cubans have been capable of enter the U.S. legally.
However there are limits to what the Trump administration can – or feels it could possibly – do to punish Cuba.
Regardless of most favoring the embargo, a big minority of the Cuban émigré neighborhood nonetheless wish to ship cash to their households in Cuba and go to their family when potential.
And although a majority of Cuban Individuals voted for Trump, most additionally wish to proceed humanitarian parole.
Cuban army personnel carry caricatures of Donald Trump throughout the Could Day parade in Havana, Cuba, in 2019.
Sven Creutzmann/Mambo photograph/Getty Pictures
Moscow’s transfer in Havana
However appeasing Cuban Individuals is only one concern for Trump. Different geopolitical components may additionally affect U.S. coverage.
Russia, for instance, is making elevated investments in Cuba and easing its power shortages, whereas reopening not less than one Chilly Battle-era base.
Given Havana’s long-standing ties with Moscow and the truth that each nations are remoted by parts of the worldwide neighborhood, this closeness is comprehensible – and Trump’s acknowledged admiration of President Vladimir Putin could mitigate concern in Washington.
China, nevertheless, can be one other matter.
President Xi Jinping’s authorities is making investments and searching for bases in Cuba, a part of a sample of China’s elevated engagement all through Latin America.
Up to now, Trump has taken delight in his willingness to problem China. Cuba may get caught within the crossfire.
However Trump’s previous dealings with one other pariah state permits for the intriguing chance of a distinct course on Cuba.
U.S. relations with North Korea, like these with Cuba, are a remnant of the Chilly Battle. For higher than half a century, U.S. coverage has forbidden commerce, journey and even diplomatic relations with the hermit kingdom, a lot because it has with Cuba.
However that didn’t cease Trump from partaking with the communist state’s chief.
Throughout his first time period, he met 3 times with President Kim Jong Un – in Vietnam, Singapore and even the Demilitarized Zone straddling North Korea and South Korea.
The artwork of the deal, Cuban-style
As the instance of North Korea makes clear, Trump enjoys enjoying the rule-breaking dealmaker on the worldwide stage.
He additionally envies Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize, which he gained in 2009, stating that he believes he deserves one.
And there’s a deal available with Havana, one that may finish the U.S. embargo in return for reparations for American-based homeowners of property expropriated throughout the Cuban Revolution.
After all, in contrast to North Korea, Cuba will not be a nuclear energy and it can not use threats of nuclear conflict to carry U.S. diplomats to the desk. However being so near the Florida coast – simply 90 miles away – it could possibly use the specter of China or Russian bases as a bargaining chip.
What’s extra, earlier than turning into president, Trump’s document on Cuba was inconsistent. In 1999, he condemned the late chief Fidel Castro as a dictator, however in both late 2012 or early 2013, workers of the Trump Group reportedly visited Cuba to scout potential areas for golf programs, resorts and casinos.
Whereas operating for president in 2015, Trump acknowledged that he was “fine” with Obama’s Cuban coverage and “somewhere in the middle” between Obama and Rubio concerning Cuba.
Trump’s onerous line on Cuba appeared solely in September 2016, when his marketing campaign towards Hillary Clinton took him to Miami seeking Florida’s electoral votes.
A brand new chapter within the chilly conflict?
Actually for now, Havana is making ready for yet one more, extra unpleasant chapter within the U.S.—Cuban Chilly Battle.
However Trump is unpredictable. On condition that he won’t ever once more run for president, he has much less incentive to appease Cuban Individuals and as a substitute look to safe a legacy for himself overseas. eg: “instead look” is complicated. Possibly “instead MAY look”?
Cuba watchers similar to myself ought to not less than entertain the likelihood that relations between the U.S. and Cuba could also be very totally different 4 years from now.