The WIAA launched its first RPI rankings for girls and boys basketball final week.
Some individuals had been excited. Maybe their favourite crew was ranked excessive.
Different individuals had been pissed off. Maybe their favourite crew was ranked decrease than anticipated.
However there are two issues you should learn about these rankings earlier than you get all labored up — these rankings have many flaws, they usually don’t actually imply that a lot.
Let’s begin first with the issues.
MORE DATA PLEASE: Like every data-driven rating system, the extra information that’s obtainable, the higher the tip end result.
Proper now, most playoff-bound groups are about midway via their schedules.
Highschool groups play 20 or 21 video games within the common season, then extra in league and district playoffs.
By the point groups qualify for the state playoffs, they are going to have performed anyplace from 24 to twenty-eight video games.
So these rankings are presently about half-cooked.
UNDERSTANDING THE SYSTEM: RPI is computed by combining three components: a crew’s successful share (40% of complete), the mixed successful share of its opponents (40% of complete), and the mixed successful share of its opponents’ opponents (20% of complete).
So 60 p.c of a crew’s score relies on components that the crew can not management.
Some individuals had been upset in regards to the Mark Morris boys being ranked at No. 9 in 2A on Monday morning, though the Monarchs are 11-1 and ranked behind No. 5 Columbia River (10-2) regardless of the very fact the Monarchs beat the Rapids.
The quantity that’s dragging down Mark Morris’ rating is its opponents successful share is .3725. Solely three different groups in Class 2A have a decrease OWP.
CLASSIFICATION DOESN’T MATTER: There isn’t a adjustment made to RPI for video games performed between groups from totally different classifications.
For instance, Mark Morris has wins over 3A Higher St. Helens groups Mountain View and Kelso. However so far as RPI is worried these wins may as nicely have come towards 1B groups Three Rivers Christian and Columbia Adventist.
RPI sees them as the identical, though they don’t seem to be.
RPI would work finest if each crew performed video games completely in their very own classification. However that’s simply not sensible.
OUT-OF-STATE GAMES: Video games performed towards out-of-state opponents should not being counted towards a crew’s RPI.
For instance, the Camas boys are 9-3. However within the eyes of RPI, the Papermakers are 7-0. Camas has performed 5 video games towards groups from out of state (4 from Oregon, one from Idaho).
There are two arguments for counting simply in-state video games.
One, the RPI system doesn’t have entry to win-loss information of out-of-state groups or their opponents, so these outcomes are considerably tainted.
Secondly, these are rankings of Washington groups, so it ought to be comprised of outcomes between Washington faculties.
The disadvantage to that is that it limits the information for groups that play a whole lot of out-of-state opponents — like groups in Southwest Washington or over in Spokane.
THE CHURN: A rating system like RPI works finest when groups play different groups from round components of the state. Groups from Southwest Washington ought to schedule non-league video games towards groups from Seattle, Tri-Cities and Spokane, and vice-versa.
I wish to check with this as “the churn.”
If you’re making a soup, you’ll be able to add all the precise substances into the pot, but it surely is not going to style good in case you don’t stir the pot.
Sadly, it is extremely tough to make that occur. Taking part in a crew that’s two, 4 or six hours away is dear and time consuming.
Most groups pack their schedules with groups in their very own area.
The Columbia River boys crew performs its total 20-game common season towards groups from Clark and Cowlitz counties.
So what’s River’s information going to inform us about how the Rapids stand towards groups from different components of the state? Not a complete lot.
However River’s close-to-home schedule just isn’t distinctive. In actual fact, it’s extra just like the norm for groups from across the state.
WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? When the WIAA first beginning utilizing RPI a couple of decade in the past, it was the one instrument that was used to seed groups into state-playoff brackets.
However then the issues began changing into extra evident.
Quickly after, the WIAA moved to seeding committees to set the state brackets, trusting people to be higher positioned to issue all of the variables that RPI couldn’t.
RPI stays a instrument obtainable to the seeding committees in figuring out brackets. However there about 10 different components which might be additionally thought-about, lessening the impression of RPI.
SO WHY RELEASE RPI AT ALL? If RPI is so flawed, why launch them in any respect?
The reply is easy: Followers love rankings.
Whereas there are media retailers that can launch state rankings for high-profile sports activities like soccer and basketball, the opposite sports activities are largely left within the lurch.
The RPI system may be utilized to different sports activities and supply rankings for each crew sport.
That’s one thing individuals need to see.
For years, The Related Press has launched weekly basketball state rankings. However diminishing participation by a shrinking variety of media retailers protecting prep sports activities makes producing these rankings tough.
It seems there shall be no AP state basketball rankings this winter. RPI helps fill the void.
So try these RPI rankings in case you like. They will provide you with some concept of which groups across the state are enjoying nicely.
Simply keep in mind to maintain the grain of salt useful.