This false rumor emerged from a standard sample: Some individuals view proof resembling good-faith errors in election administration via a mindset of elections being untrustworthy or “rigged,” main them to misread that proof.
Because the U.S. approaches one other high-stakes and contentious election, issues in regards to the pervasive unfold of falsehoods about election integrity are once more entrance of thoughts. Some election consultants fear that false claims could also be mobilized – as they had been in 2020 – into efforts to contest the election via techniques resembling lawsuits, protests, disruptions to vote-counting and stress on election officers to not certify the election.
Our group on the College of Washington has studied on-line rumors and misinformation for greater than a decade. Since 2020, we’ve got centered on fast evaluation of falsehoods about U.S. election administration, from honest confusion about when and the place to vote to intentional efforts to sow mistrust within the course of. Our motivations are to assist rapidly establish rising rumors about election administration and analyze the dynamics of how these rumors take form and unfold on-line.
Via the course of this analysis we’ve got realized that regardless of all of the dialogue about misinformation being an issue of unhealthy info, most deceptive election rumors stem not from false or manipulated proof however from misinterpretations and mischaracterizations. In different phrases, the issue is not only about unhealthy info but in addition defective frames, or the psychological constructions individuals depend on to interpret these info.
Misinformation might not be one of the best label for addressing the issue – it’s extra a difficulty of how individuals make sense of the world, how that sensemaking course of is formed by social, political and informational dynamics, and the way it begets rumors that may lead individuals to a false understanding of occasions.
Rumors – not misinformation
There’s a lengthy historical past of analysis on rumors going again to World Warfare II and earlier. From this angle, rumors are unverified tales, spreading via casual channels that serve informational, psychological and social functions. We’re making use of this information to the research of on-line falsehoods.
Although many rumors are false, some become true or partially true. Even when false, rumors can comprise helpful indications of actual confusions or fears inside a neighborhood.
Rumors will be seen as a pure byproduct of collective sensemaking – that’s, efforts by teams of well-meaning individuals to make sense of unsure and ambiguous data throughout dynamic occasions. However rumors also can emerge from propaganda and disinformation campaigns that lead individuals to misread or mischaracterize their very own and others’ experiences.
College of Washington’s Kate Starbird explains rumors as collective sensemaking.
Proof, frames and (mis)interpretations
Prior analysis describes collective sensemaking as a technique of interactions between proof and frames. Proof consists of the issues individuals see, learn and listen to on the planet. Frames are psychological schema that form how individuals interpret that proof.
The connection between proof and frames flows in two instructions. When individuals encounter novel occasions or new proof, they attempt to choose one of the best body from their psychological submitting cupboards. The chosen body then determines what proof they deal with and what proof they exclude of their interpretations. This evidence-frame view of collective sensemaking will help researchers perceive rumors and disinformation.
Everybody has their very own methods of deciphering occasions based mostly on their distinctive experiences. However your frames are usually not yours alone. Frames are formed, generally deliberately, by data from media, political leaders, communities, colleagues, mates, neighbors and household. Framing – the method of utilizing, constructing, reinforcing, adapting, difficult and updating frames – generally is a deliberate technique of political communication.
Frames play a job in producing rumors, shaping how individuals interpret rising occasions and novel proof. False rumors happen when sensemaking goes awry, typically as a consequence of individuals specializing in the mistaken piece of proof or making use of the mistaken body. And disinformation, from this angle, is the intentional manipulation of the sensemaking course of, both by introducing false proof or distorting the frames via which individuals interpret that proof.
In 2020, we noticed these dynamics at work in a rumor about Sharpie pens in Arizona. Within the lead-up to the election, President Donald Trump and his allies repeatedly alleged that the election can be rigged – setting a robust body for his followers. When voters famous that the Sharpie pens offered by election officers had been bleeding via their ballots, many interpreted their experiences via the body of a “rigged election” and have become involved that their ballots wouldn’t be counted.
A Maricopa County, Arizona, election employee counts ballots within the 2020 election as false rumors that Sharpie pens had been ruining ballots unfold on-line.
AP Picture/Matt York
Some individuals shared these experiences on-line, the place they had been quickly amplified and given which means by others, together with on-line influencers. Considerations and suspicions grew. Quickly, members of Trump’s household had been repeating false claims that the bleed-through was systematically disenfranchising Republican voters. The impact was round and mutually reinforcing. The strategic body impressed misinterpretations of proof – actual bleed-through falsely seen as affecting poll counting – that had been shared and amplified, strengthening the body.
Social media sensemaking
Collective sensemaking is more and more happening on-line, the place it’s profoundly formed by social media platforms, from options resembling repost and like buttons to algorithmic suggestions to the connections between accounts.
Many of those influencers work by systematically searching for out and amplifying content material that aligns with prevailing political frames set by elites in politics and media. This provides creators the inducement to supply content material that resonates with these frames, as a result of that content material tends to be rewarded with consideration, the first commodity of social media.
These dynamics had been at work in February 2024, when an aspiring creator produced a man-on-the-street video interviewing migrants to the U.S. that was selectively edited and captioned to falsely declare to point out undocumented migrants planning to vote illegally in U.S. elections. This resonated with two outstanding frames: the identical rigged-election body from 2020 and one other that framed immigration as dangerous to the U.S.
Interactions between influencers and on-line audiences end in content material that matches strategic frames. Rising occasions present new proof that individuals can twist to suit prevailing frames, each deliberately and unintentionally. Rumors are the byproducts of this course of, and on-line consideration dynamics gas their unfold.
Collective sensemaking and election 2024
Heading into the 2024 election, false and deceptive claims about election integrity stay widespread. Our group has tracked greater than 100 distinct rumors because the starting of September. The equipment for rapidly changing perceived proof from elections into broadly shared rumors and conspiracy theories is more and more effectively oiled.
Specialists focus on election integrity and efforts to undermine voter confidence.
One regarding growth is a rise in so-called election integrity organizations that search to recruit volunteers who share the rigged-election body. The teams purpose to supply volunteers with instruments to streamline the gathering and amplification of proof to help the rigged-election body.
One fear is that these volunteers might misread what they see and listen to on Election Day, producing extra rumors and false claims about election integrity that reinforce that more and more distorted body. One other is that these false claims will feed lawsuits and different makes an attempt to contest election outcomes.
Nevertheless, we hope that by shedding mild on a few of these dynamics, we will help researchers, journalists, election officers and different decision-makers higher diagnose and reply to rumors about election integrity on this cycle. Most significantly, we imagine that this collective sensemaking lens will help us all to each empathize with well-meaning individuals who get caught up in sharing false rumors and see how propagandists manipulate these processes for his or her acquire.