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New analysis shows Biden with a steeper path to victory than GOP nominee in 2024

President Biden has a tougher road to victory in 2024 than the eventual Republican nominee because Mr. Biden needs to win a supermajority of moderate voters in battleground states, according to a new analysis by a Washington think tank.

The centrist group Third Way said a review of presidential elections dating back to 1980 shows that liberal voters make up a smaller share of the Democratic candidate’s base than conservative voters do for the GOP nominee.

“If the 2024 electorate looks anything like what it did in 2020, then the math is simple — President Biden will need a supermajority of moderate voters to win his reelection campaign,” the report stated. “Anything less may result in a Republican victory.”

Political analyst Lucas Holtz said voters who identified as “very conservative” in the 2020 election made up nearly one-third of President Donald Trump’s coalition in each of 10 battleground states. But voters who identified as “very liberal” made up only around 20% of Mr. Biden’s coalition in those states.

Mr. Biden won because he was able to win moderate voters by a margin of 62% to 36%, and he won at least 60% of moderate voters in every state that he flipped from red to blue, Mr. Holtz said.

The report concluded that self-described conservative voters accounted for 70% of Mr. Trump’s overall coalition, while liberals made up half of Mr. Biden’s voters.

“Because conservatives make up a larger portion of the electorate than liberals do, Republicans don’t have to look far beyond their conservative base to win elections,” the report said. “Democrats, meanwhile, have a much tougher and more diverse path to winning.”

The group said Democratic and Republican electoral coalitions “are not symmetrical.”

“Election after election, ideological conservatives have comprised a larger segment of the Republican Party’s coalition than liberals have in the Democratic coalition. Because liberal voters make up the smallest ideological bloc in a presidential electorate, Democratic presidential candidates must win a supermajority of voters who lie directly in the center of the ideological electorate — moderate voters,” the report said.

The only exception in the past 42 years came in 2012 when President Barack Obama won reelection with 56% of moderate voters. In 2008, Mr. Obama won 60% of moderate voters; President Bill Clinton won 61% of moderates in 1992 and 62% of them in 1996.

To date, Mr. Trump, 76, has a significant lead in polls over other announced Republican candidates and over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is expected to enter the race.

Mr. Biden, 80, is facing challenges in the Democratic primary from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson. Polls show that more than half of Democratic voters want someone other than the president to run as the party’s nominee in 2024.

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