Pennsylvania’s pink shift within the 2024 election wasn’t remoted to the presidential race.
Statewide races for legal professional basic, auditor basic and state treasurer all went to the Republican candidates, and the AP declared Republican David McCormick the winner in opposition to Democratic incumbent Bob Casey within the state’s U.S. Senate race – though the very tight margin, which might set off an automated recount.
Pennsylvania was and nonetheless is the swingiest of the swing states. In actual fact, going into the 2024 election, it was the one U.S. state to have a divided legislature. Republicans had a majority within the Senate, however Democrats held a one-vote majority within the Home.
Surprisingly, the composition of the Pennsylvania Common Meeting, together with its break up management, has remained largely the identical after the 2024 voting.
As a Philadelphia-based political science professor who focuses on state and native politics, I consider Pennsylvania’s Common Meeting remained so steady within the face of statewide electoral upheaval for 3 causes: an absence of aggressive state legislative districts, the small dimension of these districts and the truth that some Pennsylvania voters nonetheless vote for the consultant and never the social gathering regardless of the nation’s stark political divide.
Republican David McCormick, proper, seems to have crushed three-term Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey by about half of a share level.
Matt Rourke/AP
Slight churn in PA Senate
Let’s have a look at the sunshine churn within the state Senate first.
Democrat Patty Kim gained the fifteenth Senate district in Dauphin County, which had beforehand been held by a Republican who retired.
In the meantime, 29-year-old Republican challenger Joe Picozzi beat incumbent Democrat Jimmy Dillon in a good race within the fifth Senate district in Northeast Philadelphia. Picozzi is poised to change into the primary Republican state senator to symbolize Philly in over 20 years.
The opposite senators who have been up for reelection stored their seats. So, with one Democratic pickup and one for the Republicans, management of the state senate stays unchanged.
A number of powerful races within the PA Home
All 203 seats have been up for grabs within the Home. Whereas the overwhelming majority had clear front-runners, there have been some powerful races. These have been most notably within the “collar counties” that encompass Philadelphia.
Then there was the 144th Home district in Bucks County, a swing county that flipped pink by way of having extra registered Republican voters than Democrats only a few months earlier than the election.
Two years in the past, Brian Munroe, a Democrat, narrowly gained his seat – a seat that had been held by a Republican for over half a century. He confronted one other aggressive race in 2024 and seems to have defeated his Republican challenger, Daniel McPhillips, by about 1,000 votes.
What clinched Democrats’ one-vote majority within the state Home was the race within the 72nd Home district in deep-red Cambria County.
Cambria is a county in the midst of the state that favored Trump by 36 share factors. But within the 72nd district, Democratic incumbent Frank Burns beat his challenger, Republican Amy Bradley, by almost 1,000 votes.
This was an in depth race, however what’s wonderful is that it was aggressive in any respect. In 2020, Burns gained with 52.7% of the vote, regardless of greater than two-thirds of voters within the county selecting Trump that yr.
A voter casts his poll in Pittsburgh in Allegheny County, the one county in western Pennsylvania that sided with Kamala Harris within the 2024 election.
Rebecca Droke/AFP by way of Getty Photos
Some voters nonetheless break up their ticket
In all probability because the Sixties, however undoubtedly because the Nineteen Nineties, Individuals have change into extra partisan. This sometimes signifies that they’re extra prone to vote a celebration ticket and never break up their ticket.
In 2020, for example, survey information from the Pew Analysis Middle discovered that solely 4% of voters who supported both Biden or Trump supported a Senate candidate from the opposing social gathering.
And, to an amazing extent, this was additionally the case within the election on Nov. 5 in Pennsylvania. In the entire statewide races, the profitable and shedding candidates’ percentages have been inside 4 share factors of their fellow partisans up and down the ticket.
However a number of Democrats within the Pennsylvania Home of Representatives gained of their elections even though they’re in comparatively deep-red components of the state. This contains Frank Burns within the 72nd district and in addition Robert Matzie within the sixteenth district in Beaver County. Beaver County sits on the western fringe of the state between Allegheny County and Ohio in strongly Republican nation – it voted for Trump by 21 factors. But, Matzie beat his Republican challenger, Michael Perich, by greater than 1,500 votes.
Voters in Beaver County overwhelmingly selected Trump, however some break up their tickets on a down-ballot state Home race.
Jeff Swensen by way of Getty Photos
Small districts, microcommunities
A part of the reason for why no less than some Democrats can buck the pink wave is Pennsylvania’s comparatively small state Home districts.
The Pennsylvania Home of Representatives has 203 members in 203 districts. Because the state inhabitants is about 13 million, every district has near 64,000 individuals in it. Examine that with the Ohio legislature, the place every of the 99 state Home districts has about 119,000 individuals. In New York state, every state Home district has about 134,000 individuals.
In consequence, Pennsylvania’s small Home districts can seize microcommunities which can be politically distinct from their surrounding areas. Take, for example, Matzie’s sixteenth district in Beaver County, on the border with Ohio. The district went overwhelmingly for Trump, but it surely additionally features a small portion of the county that lies near Pittsburgh and contains the outdated industrial city of Aliquippa. It’s not a Democratic stronghold, per se, but it surely’s extra Democratic than the remainder of the county and elected a Democratic mayor, Dwan Walker.
Equally, the 72nd district is in Cambria County, which went to Trump by 36 factors, however the district itself contains Johnstown, which is the most important metropolis within the county. Johnstown’s inhabitants of about 18,000 represents a couple of third of the district, and residents lean barely extra Democratic. Like Aliquippa, it additionally has a Democratic mayor.
A 203-member Pennsylvania Home of Representatives is dear, particularly since every legislator has a fairly beneficiant finances that features cash for workers and a district workplace. However these smaller districts can present extra fine-grained illustration for Pennsylvanians, who, regardless of the pink shift, usually tend to be registered Democrats than Republicans – although Democrats definitely really feel like a minority for now.