The job market is freezing up. Whereas we’re not but seeing a pattern towards widespread layoffs, it’s more and more tough to get employed. As we noticed final week right here in Energy&Market, hires have gotten more and more uncommon. And, whereas new layoffs could also be shifting sideways—and never swiftly rising—the quantity of people that stay unemployed for a major interval after a layoff is rising.
For instance, based on new unemployment numbers launched at the moment, “continuing claims” for unemployment insurance coverage hit one other new cycle excessive throughout the week of June 21.
The four-week shifting common exhibits the identical pattern:
With 1.95 million staff persevering with on the unemployment rolls, the entire is on the highest because the covid panic. If we exclude the covid interval, we’re wanting on the highest since March 2018:
Alicia Wallace gives a abstract at CNN:
Layoffs is probably not mounting, however it’s getting more durable to discover a job in a labor market the place hiring is “anemic” as tariff-driven financial uncertainty has put a chill on some employers.
New knowledge launched Thursday confirmed that preliminary claims for unemployment advantages — thought of a proxy for layoffs — fell final week. Nonetheless, the variety of recurring claims made by individuals who have already got filed for unemployment rose to their highest stage since November 2021.
There have been an estimated 227,000 first-time purposes for unemployment insurance coverage made throughout the week that ended on July 5. That’s down 5,000 claims from the prior week.
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The US labor market has cooled considerably throughout the previous yr, and the pullback in job development has largely been attributed to employers reining in hiring fairly than conducting mass layoffs.
That pattern, nonetheless, has meant that it’s taken longer for unemployed folks to search out work. Persevering with claims, that are filed by individuals who have acquired jobless advantages for a minimum of one week, as soon as once more however up in opposition to three-and-a-half-year highs.
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“It’s difficult to find a new job right now. Young people are struggling to get their first jobs and anyone who has been laid off is having a hard time landing their next role,” Heather Lengthy, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit score Union, wrote Thursday. “The labor market is frozen outside of healthcare, education and law enforcement jobs. Hiring is anemic in other sectors as companies remain cautious in this environment.”
