BAGHDAD — The autumn of Bashar Assad in Syria has led Iran-allied factions in neighboring Iraq to rethink their push for U.S. forces to exit the nation, a number of Iraqi and American officers advised The Related Press.
The U.S. and Iraq introduced an settlement final yr to wind down the navy mission in Iraq of an American-led coalition preventing the Islamic State group by September 2025, with U.S. forces departing some bases the place they’ve stationed troops throughout a two-decade-long navy presence within the nation.
Political and armed factions linked to Iran had been among the many loudest voices calling for a U.S. exit from Iraq — notably after the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas assault in southern Israel and Israel’s ensuing bombardment and floor invasion of Gaza.
In Iraq, as in a lot of the Arab world, U.S. backing for Israel in a struggle that killed tens of hundreds of civilians and displaced practically Gaza’s complete inhabitants of two.3 million was unpopular.
When the settlement was reached to finish the coalition’s mission in Iraq, Iraqi political leaders stated the specter of IS was beneath management and so they now not wanted Washington’s assist to beat again the remaining cells.
However the fall of Assad in a lightning offensive led by Sunni Islamist rebels in December led some to reassess that stance, together with members of the Coordination Framework, a coalition of primarily Shiite, Iran-allied political events that introduced present Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani to energy in late 2022.
The autumn of Assad — an ally of Iran — weakened Tehran’s hand within the area, leaving allied teams in Iraq feeling susceptible. Many in Iraq additionally concern that IS may benefit from the safety vacuum to stage a comeback whereas Syria’s new leaders are nonetheless consolidating their management over the nation and forming a nationwide military.
“Most leaders of the Shiite Coordination Framework are in favor of keeping American forces in Iraq and will not want American forces to leave Iraq as a result of what happened in Syria,” stated one official with the group. “They are afraid of ISIS exploiting the vacuum if the Americans leave Iraq and the situation in Iraq collapses.”
A number of different Iraqi political and safety officers gave comparable assessments. They spoke on situation of anonymity as a result of they weren’t approved to remark publicly.
A high-ranking official in Iraq’s Nationwide Safety Service stated that in a gathering with the Iraqi authorities, his company had made the argument that “it is not in Iraq’s interest to request the withdrawal of the US and the international coalition from Iraq at the present time.”
“The loud voices that were previously talking about the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq have decreased significantly,” he stated. “I expect that there will be no withdrawal this year by the Americans.”
A senior U.S. protection official, who additionally spoke on situation of anonymity as a result of he was not approved to remark publicly, stated that because the fall of Assad in Syria, Iraqi authorities officers have requested “informally at the highest of levels” to delay the top of the mission in Iraq of an American-led coalition preventing the Islamic State group and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq.
He stated the Iraqis had been anxious that IS may benefit from the chaos following Assad’s ouster — and of enormous stockpiles of weapons deserted by the previous Syrian military — to stage a comeback, which he described as a “valid concern.”
“ISIS is not imminently going to make a resurgence, but it certainly could,” he stated, utilizing an alternate identify for IS.
The Iraqi authorities has not made any public assertion about the potential for extending the coalition’s mandate. Iraqi authorities spokesperson Bassim al-Awadi stated Friday that the “time frames between Iraq and the international coalition have not changed” and that conferences between Iraq and coalition officers are ongoing.
Whereas Iraqi would doubtless have to make a proper written request to increase the withdrawal timeline, al-Sudani is likely to be reluctant to make the request publicly out of concern of being portrayed by home rivals as backing down after he had beforehand known as for a U.S. exit. The Iraqi authorities has tried to take care of a fragile stability between its ties to Iran and to the US.
Iraqi armed teams have additionally had a sophisticated relationship with U.S. forces, with the identical teams generally attacking them and on different events turning into allies of comfort in a combat towards a standard enemy.
The In style Mobilization Forces, a coalition of primarily Shiite, Iran-backed armed teams, fought towards the Islamic State group starting in 2014, when IS militants rampaged throughout the nation, seizing giant swathes of territory.
Renad Mansour, a senior analysis fellow on the Chatham Home suppose tank in London, stated that whereas there wasn’t “active coordination” between the U.S. forces and PMF on the time “they were fighting the same war on the same side against the same enemy.”
In the course of the struggle in Gaza, among the teams that make up the PMF launched drone assaults on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria. They haven’t launched any assaults because the fall of Assad.
Mansour stated that a lot of the nervousness in Iraq concerning the post-Assad way forward for Syria stems from Iraq’s personal historical past. Lots of the nation’s present leaders bear in mind the chaotic years following the autumn of Iraq’s former strongman chief, Saddam Hussein, in a U.S.-led invasion in 2003.
“If the argument for removing the U.S. troops from Iraq was that the fight against ISIS was over and the region is stable, that calculation has changed following regime change in Syria,” he stated. “The threat of Daesh (the Arabic acronym for IS) in the context of an unstable and precarious Syria for the next few years is very real for the Coordination Framework and the government in Iraq.”