Saudi Arabia is 2,000 miles from Ukraine and much more politically distant, so at first look it’d look like it has nothing to do with the continuing warfare there. However the Gulf state has emerged as a key middleman in probably the most severe ceasefire negotiations since Russia invaded its neighbor three years in the past.
Whereas it’s U.S. officers who’re undoubtedly main the efforts for an settlement, it’s the Saudi capital of Riyadh that has been staging the essential talks.
In a flurry of diplomatic exercise on March 10, 2025, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the nation’s prime political authority, hosted separate conferences with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a U.S. delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and nationwide safety adviser Mike Waltz.
The next day, senior Saudi officers facilitated face-to-face conferences between U.S. and Ukrainian delegations.
The ensuing settlement, which is now being mulled in Moscow, is all of the extra notable on condition that it adopted a diplomatic breakdown simply weeks earlier than on the Oval Workplace between Zelenskyy, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance.
Whether or not the proposed interim 30-day ceasefire materializes remains to be unsure. On March 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated he agreed with the proposal in precept, however he added that lots of the small print wanted to be sorted out.
Ought to a deal be reached, there may be each motive to consider will probably be inked in Saudi Arabia, which has hosted not solely the most recent U.S.-Ukrainian talks however earlier rounds of high-level Russian-U.S. conferences.
However why is a Gulf nation taking part in mediator in a battle in Japanese Europe? As an knowledgeable on Saudi politics, I consider the reply to that lies within the kingdom’s diplomatic ambitions and its need to current a extra constructive picture to the world. And within the background is the aim of higher positioning the nation within the occasion of diplomatic maneuvers in its personal area, notably with regard to any talks between U.S. and Iran.
The diplomatic convertion of MBS
Saudi Arabia’s rising diplomatic position has been a function of the dominion’s international coverage since 2022.
Crown Prince Mohammed, who that yr succeeded his father as prime minister, views Saudi Arabia because the convening energy within the Arab and Islamic world.
Accordingly, officers within the kingdom have been directed to guide regional diplomacy over quite a few urgent points, together with the conflicts in Gaza and Sudan.
On the identical time, Saudis have began the method of reconciliation with Iran, which has lengthy been perceived because the chief regional rival to Saudi affect.
This flip to diplomacy marks a shift away from the confrontational insurance policies adopted by the crown prince throughout his rise to energy in Saudi Arabia between 2015 and 2018. Insurance policies reminiscent of Saudi Arabia’s navy intervention in Yemen, its blockade of Qatar, the detention of Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri and the conversion of the Ritz-Carlton lodge in Riyadh right into a makeshift jail all fed a picture of the younger prince as an impulsive decision-maker. Then in 2018 got here the homicide of journalist Jamal Khashoggi within the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.
This strategy introduced little in the best way of stability. Relatively, it left the nation ensnared in an unwinnable warfare in Yemen, a fruitless row with Qatar, and diplomatic isolation by Western officers.
A good friend to Ukraine and Russia
Regarding the warfare in Ukraine, Saudi Arabia’s middleman position is helped by a notion of the dominion as a impartial nation on the battle.
Saudi officers, in frequent with their counterparts within the different Gulf states, have lengthy sought to keep away from taking sides within the rising period of nice energy competitors and strategic rivalry. As such, the dominion has maintained working relations with each Russia and pro-Western Ukraine for the reason that outbreak of warfare in Europe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meet in Riyadh on Dec. 6, 2023.
Alexey Nikolsky/AFP through Getty Photographs
In 2022, for instance, Saudi Arabia and Russia – each leaders of OPEC+ – coordinated oil manufacturing cuts to cushion Moscow from the consequences of world sanctions the West imposed after it invaded Ukraine. But simply months later, Saudi Arabia invited Zelenskyy to handle an Arab League summit within the Saudi metropolis of Jeddah.
It was a prelude to a 2023 worldwide summit, additionally in Jeddah, which introduced collectively representatives from 40 nations to debate the continuing warfare.
Regardless of failing to provide a breakthrough, the assembly illustrated the convening attain of the crown prince and his intention to behave as a diplomatic go-between within the Ukraine-Russia warfare.
Saudi Arabia and neighboring United Arab Emirates later facilitated occasional prisoner exchanges between the 2 nations – uncommon diplomatic successes in three years of battle.
Staging floor for diplomacy
Direct engagement in high-stakes worldwide diplomacy over the most important warfare in Europe since 1945 is undoubtedly a step up in Saudi ambitions. However the nation’s efforts aren’t purely altruistic. Riyadh believes there’s mileage to be gained in such diplomatic endeavors.
The appearance of a Trump presidency has match Saudi wishes. Trump has made his need to be seen as a dealmaker and peacemaker clear, however he wants a impartial venue by which the arduous work of diplomacy can flourish.
Simply weeks into the brand new U.S. administration, the Saudi capital hosted the primary assembly between a U.S. secretary of state and Russian international minister since Russia invaded in 2022.
It yielded an settlement to “re-establish the bilateral relationship” and set up a session mechanism to “address irritants” in ties.
The 2 rounds of dialogue in Riyadh – first with Russia, then Ukraine – have positioned the Saudi management firmly within the diplomatic course of. It has additionally gone some option to rehabilitate Mohammed bin Salman’s picture.
The sight of the crown prince warmly greeting Zelenskyy contrasted sharply with the photographs from a fractious White Home assembly that went all over the world, presenting the crown prince as a statesmanlike determine.
Turning to Tehran
Such constructive optics would have appeared inconceivable as just lately as 2019, when the crown prince was shunned after which presidential candidate Joe Biden labeled the nation a “pariah” state.
Altering this damaging international notion of Saudi Arabia is essential if the dominion is to draw the tens of thousands and thousands of tourists which might be pivotal to the success of the “giga-projects” – sports activities, tradition and tourism occasions that the Saudis hope will drive its economic system and permit the dominion to be much less economically depending on fossil gasoline exports.
Whereas easing tensions with Iran and supporting Yemen’s fragile truce are about derisking the dominion’s vulnerability to regional volatility, facilitating diplomacy over Ukraine is a comparatively cost-free option to reinforce the altering narratives about Saudi Arabia.
In spite of everything, any breakdown within the Russia-U.S.-Ukraine negotiations is unlikely to be blamed on the Saudis.
Certainly, Saudi officers could view their engagement with U.S. officers over Ukraine because the prelude to additional diplomatic cooperation. And this can be very true if Crown Prince Mohammed is ready to set up himself as an indispensable companion within the eyes of Trump.
Saudi officers have been excluded from the final main talks between Iran and the U.S., which additionally concerned a number of different main world powers and led to the 2016 Iran nuclear deal. Trump withdrew from the deal shortly after assuming workplace for the primary time in 2017, and U.S.-Iranian relations have been moribund since then.
The U.S. administration has already mooted the concept of a resumption of negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear capabilities.
Putting Saudi Arabia in the midst of any makes an attempt to safe a brand new nuclear settlement that may substitute or supersede that earlier deal can be a high-risk transfer, given the depth of feeling on each the U.S. and Iranian sides and the uneasy coexistence between Tehran and Riyadh.
However doing so would give the dominion what it most wishes: a seat on the desk.
