A unexpectedly organized summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready for Aug. 15, 2025, in Alaska, the place the 2 leaders will talk about a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is not going to attend, barring a last-minute change. The Dialog’s politics editor Naomi Schalit interviewed longtime diplomat Donald Heflin, now instructing at Tufts College’s Fletcher Faculty, to get his perspective on the unconventional assembly and why it’s prone to produce, as he says, {a photograph} and an announcement, however not a peace deal.
How do wars finish?
Wars finish for 3 causes. One is that either side get exhausted and determine to make peace. The second, which is extra widespread: One facet will get exhausted and raises its hand and says, “Yeah, we’re ready to come to the peace table.”
After which the third is – we’ve seen this occur within the Mideast – exterior forces just like the U.S. or Europe are available and say, “That’s enough. We’re imposing our will from the outside. You guys stop this.”
What we’ve seen within the Russia-Ukraine state of affairs is neither facet has proven an actual willingness to go to the convention desk and quit territory.
So the combating continues. And the function that Trump and his administration are enjoying proper now’s that third chance, an outdoor energy is available in and says, “Enough.”
Now you need to have a look at Russia. Russia is possibly a former superpower, however an influence, and it’s bought nuclear arms and it’s bought an enormous military. This isn’t some small, Center Japanese nation that america can fully dominate. They’re practically a peer. So can you actually impose your will on them and get them to return to the convention desk in seriousness in the event that they don’t need to? I form of doubt it.
Residents of Kramatorsk, Ukraine, step out of their automotive amid residential buildings bombed by Russian forces on Aug. 10, 2025.
Pierre Crom/Getty Photos
How does this upcoming Trump-Putin assembly match into the historical past of peace negotiations?
The analogy lots of people are utilizing is the Munich Convention in 1938, the place Nice Britain met with Hitler’s Germany. I don’t prefer to make comparisons to Nazism or Hitler’s Germany. These guys began World Warfare II and perpetrated the Holocaust and killed 30 or 40 million individuals. It’s onerous to check something to that.
However in diplomatic phrases, we return to 1938. Germany mentioned, “Listen, we have all these German citizens living in this new country of Czechoslovakia. They’re not being treated right. We want them to become part of Germany.” They usually have been poised to invade.
The prime minister of Nice Britain, Neville Chamberlain, went and met with Hitler in Munich and got here up with an settlement by which the German components of Czechoslovakia would develop into a part of Germany. And that might be it. That might be all that Germany would ask for, and the West gave some form of mild safety ensures.
Czechoslovakia wasn’t there. This was a peace imposed on them.
And certain sufficient, you recognize, inside a 12 months or two, Germany was saying, “No, we want all of Czechoslovakia. And, P.S., we want Poland.” And thus World Warfare II began.
German dictator Adolf Hitler, proper, shakes arms with British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain throughout their assembly at Godesberg, Germany, on Sept. 23, 1938.
New York Instances Co./Getty Photos
Are you able to spell out the comparisons additional?
Czechoslovakia wasn’t on the desk. Ukraine’s not on the desk.
Once more, I’m undecided I need to examine Putin to Hitler, however he’s a strongman authoritarian president with an enormous navy.
Safety ensures got to Czechoslavakia and never honored. The West gave Ukraine safety ensures when that nation gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994. We informed them, “If you’re going to be brave and give up your nuclear weapons, we’ll make sure you’re never invaded.” They usually’ve been invaded twice since then, in 2014 and 2022. The West didn’t step up.
So historical past would inform us that the probabilities for a long-lasting peace popping out of this summit are fairly low.
What sort of experience is required in negotiating a peace deal?
Right here’s what normally occurs in most nations which have an enormous international coverage or nationwide safety institution, and even in some smaller nations.
The political leaders give you their coverage purpose, what they need to obtain.
After which they inform the profession civil servants and international service officers and navy individuals, “This is what we want to get at the negotiating table. How do we do that?”
After which the consultants say, “Oh, we do this and we do that, and we’ll assign staff to work it out. We’ll work with our Russian counterparts and try to narrow the issues down, and we’ll come up with numbers and maps.”
With all of the substitute of personnel because the inauguration, the U.S. not solely has a brand new group of political appointees – together with some, like Marco Rubio, who, usually talking, know what they’re doing when it comes to nationwide safety – but in addition many who don’t know what they’re doing. They’ve additionally fired the senior degree of civil servants and international service officers, and loads of the mid-levels are leaving, in order that experience isn’t there.
That’s an actual downside. The U.S. nationwide safety institution is more and more being run by the B workforce – at greatest.
How will this be an issue when Trump meets Putin?
You’ve two leaders of two huge nations like this, they normally don’t meet on just a few days’ discover. It must be an actual disaster.
This assembly may occur two or three weeks from now as simply because it may this week.
And if that occurred, you’ll have an opportunity to organize. You’d have an opportunity to get all types of paperwork in entrance of the American individuals. You’ll meet together with your Russian counterparts. You’d meet with Ukrainian counterparts, possibly a number of the Western European nations. And when the 2 sides sat down on the desk, it might be very skilled.
They’d have very related briefing papers in entrance of them. The problems can be narrowed down.
None of that’s going to occur in Alaska. It’s going to be two political leaders assembly and deciding issues, typically pushed by political issues, however with none actual concept of whether or not they can actually be carried out or how they might be carried out.
Might a peace deal probably be enforced?
Once more, the state of affairs is form of haunted by the West by no means implementing safety ensures promised in 1994. So I’m undecided how properly this might be enforced.
Traditionally, Russia and Ukraine have been at all times linked up, and that’s the issue. What’s Putin’s backside line? Would he surrender Crimea? No. Would he surrender the a part of jap Ukraine that de facto had been taken over by Russia earlier than this struggle even began? In all probability not. Would he surrender what they’ve gained since then? OK, possibly.
Then let’s put ourselves in Ukraine’s footwear. Will they need to surrender Crimea? They are saying, “No.” Do they need to surrender any of the jap a part of the nation? They are saying, “No.”
I’m curious what your colleagues within the diplomatic world are saying about this upcoming assembly.
Individuals who perceive the method of diplomacy assume that that is very amateurish and is unlikely to yield actual outcomes which can be enforceable. It’ll yield some form of assertion and a photograph of Trump and Putin shaking arms. There might be individuals who imagine that this may remedy the issue. It received’t.
