Has President Donald Trump survived the newest and most severe firestorm of controversy over the Epstein scandal? Or has the Trump administration’s dealing with of the discharge of knowledge regarding the prosecution of Jeffrey Epstein, a convicted little one intercourse trafficker and Trump’s former buddy, harm the president?
Plenty of journalists, pointing to latest public opinion polls, have claimed that the scandal has harm Trump. Others have argued that the general public has largely moved on and the Epstein controversy now not presents a political legal responsibility for Trump.
However each of those conclusions are primarily based on restricted polling in regards to the Epstein controversy and thus could also be untimely.
Our latest College of Massachusetts Amherst nationwide ballot consists of significantly detailed questions in regards to the Epstein controversy and attitudes towards Trump, and thus supplies contemporary insights on how the controversy has affected public help for Trump.
We discover that Trump’s dealing with of the Epstein controversy has accomplished vital harm to his standing, significantly amongst his core supporters.
Trump ‘fumbling the matter’
Individuals are paying shut consideration to the extended Epstein controversy. Our polling finds that 3 in 4 respondents have heard, learn or seen “a lot” or “some” about Epstein.
Furthermore, most consider that Trump is fumbling the matter.
Seven in 10 Individuals consider that Trump is dealing with the matter “not well.” This consists of pluralities of Trump’s most loyal supporters, 43% of Republicans, 43% of conservatives, and 47% of those that voted for him in 2024.
Once we drill down on the 47% of 2024 Trump voters who disapprove of Trump’s dealing with of the Epstein controversy, we discover vital cracks within the MAGA facade. Amongst members of this group, 28% now disapprove of Trump as president.
Once we take demographics, ideology, partisanship and assessments of the economic system under consideration, disapproval of Trump’s dealing with of the discharge of the Epstein recordsdata continues to be related to a rise in disapproval of Trump.
From left, Donald Trump, his future spouse Melania Knauss, Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell on the Mar-a-Lago membership in Palm Seaside, Fla., on Feb. 12, 2000.
Davidoff Studios/Getty Pictures
Voter remorse
Much more considerably, we discover that amongst 2024 Trump voters, damaging views of Trump’s dealing with of the Epstein recordsdata are related to an elevated need to make a unique selection if the 2024 election might be rerun.
Extra particularly, amongst Trump voters who consider that the president has mishandled the discharge of the Epstein recordsdata, multiple quarter – 26% – point out that they might not vote for Trump if they’d the chance to vote once more within the 2024 election.
Whereas there are not any election do-overs, it’s clear that the Epstein scandal has harm Trump amongst his base of voters.
A lot can occur between now and the midterm elections in November 2026, after all.
But when Trump fails to fulfill his political base, perceptions amongst Trump voters that he has mishandled the controversy may cut back enthusiasm and participation within the elections. Even when the share of Republicans alienated by the Epstein controversy is comparatively small, this might harm Republicans in shut contests.
With over a 12 months to go, the info on the bottom will possible change. However as of immediately, the controversy over the discharge of the Epstein recordsdata stays related. Whether or not the president responds in a way that satisfies his voters is a query that might have essential political penalties.
