Flash floods just like the one which swept down the Guadalupe River in Texas on July 4, 2025, might be extremely unpredictable. Whereas there are subtle flood prediction fashions and several types of warning methods in some locations, efficient flood safety requires in depth preparedness and consciousness.
It additionally requires an understanding of how folks obtain, interpret and act on danger info and warnings. Know-how might be a part of the answer, however in the end persons are the important factor in any response.
As researchers who examine emergency communications, we’ve got discovered that merely offering folks with technical info and knowledge is commonly not sufficient to successfully talk the hazard and immediate them to behave.
The human factor
One in every of us, Keri Stephens, has led groups learning flood danger communication. They discovered that individuals who have skilled a flood are extra conscious of the dangers. Conversely, teams that haven’t lived by way of floods sometimes don’t understanding varied flood dangers equivalent to storm surges and flash floods. And whereas first responders usually have interaction in table-top workouts and drills – essential for his or her readiness to reply – there are only some examples of total communities actively collaborating in warning drills.
Messages used to speak flood danger additionally matter, however folks have to obtain them. To that finish, Keri’s groups have labored with the Texas Water Growth Board to develop assets that assist native flood officers type by way of and prioritize details about a flood hazard to allow them to share what’s most respected with their native communities.
The generally used “Turn Around Don’t Drown” message, whereas helpful, could not resonate equally with all teams. Newly developed and examined messages equivalent to “Keep Your Car High and Dry” attraction particularly to younger adults who sometimes really feel invincible however don’t need their prized automobiles broken. Whereas extra analysis is required, that is an instance of progress in understanding an necessary facet of flood communication: how recipients of the data make selections.
Interviews performed by researchers usually embody responses alongside these traces: “Another flash flood warning. We get these all the time. It’s never about flooding where I am.” This frequent chorus reveals a elementary problem in flood communication. When folks hear “flood warning,” they usually consider various things, and interpretations can range relying on an individual’s proximity to the flooding occasion.
Some folks equate flood warnings with streamflow gauges and sensors that monitor water ranges – the technical infrastructure that triggers alerts when rivers exceed sure thresholds. Others consider cell phone alerts, county- or geographic-specific notification methods, and even sirens.
A typical alert from the Nationwide Climate Service.
AP Photograph/Lisa Rathke
Past applied sciences and digital communication, warnings nonetheless come by way of casual networks in lots of communities. Emergency managers instantly coordinate with and share info with main companies and organizations, saying, “Hey, John, be sure you have somebody up tonight watching the National Weather Service alerts and rivers.”
This human-centered method, much like neighborhood-level methods we’ve got studied in Japan, can present direct affirmation that warnings have been obtained. That is one thing mass media and cellular methods can’t assure, particularly throughout infrastructure failures equivalent to energy and cell tower outages.
Efficient messages
Analysis reveals that efficient warning messages want to incorporate 5 important elements: a transparent hazard description, location-specific info, actionable steering, timing cues and a reputable supply. The Federal Emergency Administration Company’s built-in public alert and warning system message design dashboard assists authorities in quickly drafting efficient messages.
This warning system, often called IPAWS, offers nationwide infrastructure for wi-fi emergency alerts and Emergency Alert System messages. Whereas highly effective, IPAWS has limitations − not all emergency managers are educated to make use of it, and messages could lengthen past meant geographic areas. Additionally, many older cellular gadgets lack the newest capabilities, so they could not obtain essentially the most full messages when they’re despatched.
Hyperlocal neighborhood opt-in methods can complement IPAWS by permitting residents to register for focused notifications. These methods, which might be run by communities or native companies, face their very own challenges. Individuals should know they exist, be keen to share telephone numbers, and keep in mind to replace their info. Social media platforms add one other communication channel, with emergency managers more and more utilizing social media to share updates, although these primarily attain solely sure demographics, and never everybody checks social media usually.
The secret’s redundancy by way of a number of communication channels. Analysis has discovered that a number of warnings are wanted for folks to develop a way of urgency, and the simplest technique is easy: Inform one other individual what’s occurring. Interpersonal networks assist make sure the message is delivered and might immediate actions. As former Pure Hazards Heart Director Dennis Mileti noticed: The wi-fi emergency alerts system “is fast. Mama is faster.”
A Colorado information report explains why emergency alerts must be tailor-made for native wants and situations and use a number of communication channels.
Warning fatigue
Professionals from the Nationwide Climate Service, FEMA and the Federal Communications Fee, together with researchers, are more and more involved about warning fatigue – when folks tune out warnings as a result of they obtain too lots of them.
Nevertheless, there’s restricted empirical knowledge about how and when folks expertise warning fatigue – or about its affect.
This creates a double bind: Officers have an obligation to warn folks in danger, but frequent warnings can desensitize recipients. Extra analysis is required to find out the behavioral implications of and variations between warnings that folks understand as irrelevant to their instant geographic space versus those who genuinely don’t apply to them. This distinction turns into particularly important when folks may drive into flooded areas exterior their instant neighborhood.
The important thing to efficient emergency communication is to develop messages that resonate with particular audiences and construct neighborhood networks that complement technological methods. We at the moment are learning how to do that successfully in the USA and internationally. It’s additionally necessary to use behavioral insights to the design of each stage of communication warning methods. And it’s necessary to recollect to check not simply the know-how however your complete end-to-end system, from risk identification to neighborhood response.
Lastly, sustaining true redundancy throughout a number of communication channels is a crucial technique when making an attempt to achieve as many individuals as potential. Know-how helps human decision-making, however it doesn’t change it.
