Going through a risk of imminent authorities shutdown, 9 Democrats joined GOP Senate colleagues to defeat a filibuster, shifting the six-month authorities funding invoice to closing passage in a late-day vote on March 14, 2025.
Since January 2025, Republicans in Washington have loved what’s generally generally known as a governing “trifecta”: management over the manager department by way of the president, mixed with majorities for his or her occasion in each the Home and the Senate.
You may suppose {that a} trifecta, which can also be known as “unified government” by political scientists, is a transparent recipe for simple legislative success. In principle, when political events have unified management over the Home, the Senate and the presidency, there ought to be much less battle between them. As a result of these politicians are a part of the identical political occasion and have the identical broad objectives, it looks like they need to have the ability to get their agenda accepted, and the opposing minority occasion can do little to cease them.
However not all trifectas are created equal, and never all are dominant. And several other weaknesses within the Republicans’ trifecta made passing their six-month stopgap spending invoice so tough, and so they assist clarify why the federal authorities got here so near shutting down fully.
Analysis exhibits that political gridlock can nonetheless occur even below a unified authorities for causes which were on show ever since Republicans assumed management of Congress and the presidency in January.
With a slim majority, will GOP Home Speaker Mike Johnson, left, have the ability to cross Donald Trump’s priorities?
Andrew Harnik/Getty Pictures
Majority measurement issues
A unified authorities clearly makes President Donald Trump’s means to enact his agenda a lot simpler than if, for instance, Democrats managed the U.S. Home, as they did through the second half of his first time period, from 2021-2022. However tight margins in each congressional chambers have meant that, even with a trifecta, it hasn’t been a simple.
Trump was the sixth consecutive president with a trifecta on Day 1 of his second time period. However historical past – and simple arithmetic – present that presidents with trifectas have a better time passing partisan laws with greater majorities. Larger majorities imply majority-party defections gained’t simply sink controversial or partisan laws. An even bigger majority additionally implies that particular person members of Congress from both occasion have much less leverage to water down the president’s coverage requests.
Trump additionally held a trifecta through the starting of his first time period in workplace; specifically, a giant Republican majority within the Home, which handed main laws with relative ease and put stress on Senate colleagues to conform. Trump signed a serious tax reform package deal in 2017 that was the signature legislative achievement of his first time period.
However Trump has a a lot smaller benefit this time.
Each president since Invoice Clinton has entered workplace with a trifecta, however Trump’s seat benefit within the Home on Day 1 of his second time period was the smallest of all of them. This slim Home margin meant that Republicans might afford to lose solely a handful of their occasion’s votes on their spending invoice to ensure that it to cross over unanimous Democratic opposition.
And Trump’s comparatively small benefit within the Senate meant that Republicans wanted at the least eight Democratic votes to interrupt a filibuster. 9 Democrats finally voted to advance the invoice to closing passage.
Majority occasion troubles
Along with opposition from Democrats in Congress, Trump and different Republican leaders have continued to confront inner divisions inside their very own occasion.
In a intently divided Home or Senate, there are many instruments that Democrats, even because the minority occasion, can use to stymie Trump’s agenda. This most notably consists of the filibuster, which might have compelled Republicans to garner 60 votes for his or her short-term spending invoice. A small proportion of Democrats finally bailed out Senate Republicans on this case; however any main defections throughout the GOP would have required much more Democratic help, which Republicans had been unlikely to get.
Even dominant legislative trifectas, once more just like the one former President Barack Obama loved when he took workplace in 2009, can’t stop divisions inside political events, as totally different politicians jockey for management of the occasion’s agenda.
Regardless of coming into workplace with a 17-vote benefit within the Senate, 11 greater than Trump enjoys now, Obama’s signature legislative achievement – the Inexpensive Care Act, additionally typically generally known as Obamacare – needed to be watered down considerably to win a easy majority after backlash from conservative Democrats.
Obama’s trifecta was greater in measurement; however in a polarized America, a big majority additionally means an ideologically numerous one.
Simply as Republican leaders did within the final Congress, Trump has confronted related pushback behind the scenes and in public from members of his personal occasion in his second time period. For the previous two years, the Republican-led Home has been repeatedly riven by management struggles and an usually aimless legislative agenda, because of a scarcity of cooperation from the the occasion’s far-right flank.
This group of ideologically pushed lawmakers stays massive sufficient to stall any party-line vote that Speaker Mike Johnson hopes to cross, and the spending invoice very almost fell sufferer to this sort of defection.
Despite the fact that the GOP squeaked out a win on this spending invoice, the potential for continued chaos is monumental, particularly if Trump pursues extra main reform to coverage areas comparable to immigration.
Competing pressures
Regardless of Congress’ fame as a polarized partisan physique, members of Congress finally serve a number of masters. The lingering Republican divisions that made it so tough to cross this decision mirror the competing pressures of nationwide occasion leaders in Washington and the native politics of every member’s district, which frequently lower towards what occasion leaders need.
For instance, some Republicans signify closely Republican districts and will likely be pleased to go together with Trump’s agenda, no matter how excessive it’s. Others signify districts gained by Kamala Harris in 2024 and could be extra inclined to reasonable their positions to maintain their seats in 2026 and past. There admittedly aren’t lots of this latter group; however probably sufficient to sink any party-line laws Speaker Johnson has in thoughts.
What’s subsequent?
Republicans managed to cross a hurried, stopgap spending invoice on March 14, 2025 solely by the pores and skin of their tooth. Failing to take action would have pushed the federal authorities into shutdown mode. Small margins, inner divisions and conflicting electoral pressures will proceed to make legislating tough over the subsequent two years or extra.
Thanks to those issues, it could be that congressional Republicans will proceed to depend on the manager department, together with Elon Musk and the efforts on the Division of Authorities Effectivity, or DOGE, to do the policymaking for them, even when it means handing over their very own legislative energy to Trump.
That is an up to date model of a narrative first revealed on Nov. 19, 2024.