With the Senate knotted at 50-50 for each party, Republican control is only one seat away. But this election season has been full of surprises.
For much of the campaign season, Democrats have appeared ready to grab a Republican seat in Pennsylvania, meaning Republicans would need to flip two Democratic seats to earn a majority. But recent fumbles by Republican candidates in New Hampshire, Georgia and Arizona have made finding those two winnable races more difficult.
Here are the seats where each party is vulnerable.
Cook Political Report Race Ratings
for Current Senate Seats
Republicans
Currently hold 50 seats, need 51 for majority
Democrats
Currently hold majority with 50 seats (vice president casts tie-breaking vote)
Republicans not up for re-election
Solid R
Likely R
Lean R
Tossup
Democrats not up for re-election
Solid D
Lean D
Tossup
PA
WI
FL
NC
OH
UT
AK
AL
AR
IA
ID
IN
KS
KY
LA
MO
ND
OK
OK
SC
SD
AK
AL
AR
FL
IA
ID
IN
KS
KY
LA
ME
MO
MS
MS
MT
NC
ND
NE
NE
SC
SD
TN
TN
TX
TX
UT
WV
WY
WY
GA
NV
AZ
CO
NH
CA
CT
HI
IL
MD
NY
OR
VT
WA
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DE
DE
GA
HI
IL
MA
MA
MD
ME
MI
MI
MN
MN
MT
NH
NJ
NJ
NM
NM
NV
NY
OH
OR
PA
RI
RI
VA
VA
VT
WA
WI
WV
Republicans not up for re-election
Democrats not up for re-election
Cook Political Report still rates the contest a tossup, but the new allegations have given Mr. Warnock an edge and put Mr. Walker on the defensive.
A Democratic seat in Arizona may have at one point been vulnerable. But the enduring popularity of the incumbent, Mark Kelly, and the faltering campaign of his challenger, Blake Masters, may put it out of Republican reach.
But her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, the state’s former attorney general, lost his run for governor in 2018 and has yet to open a clear lead.
His opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, had a life-threatening stroke that gave Dr. Oz an opening. The evident effects of the stroke, and the Republican’s attacks on Mr. Fetterman as a criminal-coddling liberal, have narrowed the race.
Democrats had high hopes of unseating the Republican senator from Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, six years ago and were stunned by his relatively easy re-election. Since then, Mr. Johnson has become the Senate’s leading peddler of conspiracy theories and Covid-19 misinformation, yet he is hanging tough against Wisconsin’s lieutenant governor, Mandela Barnes, who comes from the Democrats’ liberal wing and has proven vulnerable to attack, especially on crime.
Cheri Beasley, a former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, is running as a judge above the political fray. North Carolina is a state that has broken Democrats’ hearts, and it could well do so again. But Mr. Budd and Ms. Beasley are consistently polling at a tie.
Despite the challenges ahead, Republicans still have plenty of ways to win Senate control. They could beat Senator Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada and push Senator Raphael Warnock to a runoff in Georgia. They could overwhelm the Georgia race with cash to rescue Mr. Warnock’s opponent, Herschel Walker. They could also pull off a come-from-behind win in Pennsylvania.
But Democrats have options as well. If they can seal a victory in Pennsylvania and defeat Senator Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, it’s hard to see a way for Republicans to take three Democratic seats to compensate.